Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Spartak Velka Bites vs FK Pelhrimov

Team pages: FC Spartak Velka Bites · FK Pelhrimov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

FC Spartak Velka Bites2.07

FK Pelhrimov1.57

1X2

49% 23% 29%

FC Spartak Velka Bites Draw FK Pelhrimov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Spartak Velka Bites 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLLWWD

FK Pelhrimov 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDLD

Head-to-head

FC Spartak Velka Bites 2–2–0 FK Pelhrimov (4 last)

FC Spartak Velka Bites4-1FK Pelhrimov
FK Pelhrimov0-5FC Spartak Velka Bites
FK Pelhrimov3-3FC Spartak Velka Bites
FC Spartak Velka Bites1-1FK Pelhrimov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Spartak Velka Bites 1528 · FK Pelhrimov 1473

	FC Spartak Velka Bites	Draw	FK Pelhrimov
Our model	49%	23%	29%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Spartak Velka Bites (rating 1528 vs 1473).
H2H favours FC Spartak Velka Bites: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Spartak Velka Bites	FK Pelhrimov
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	2.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:49 +21’	1.83	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Spartak Velka Bites 2–2–0 FK Pelhrimov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Spartak Velka Bites	4-1 HT 1-1	FK Pelhrimov
21/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Pelhrimov	0-5 HT 0-0	FC Spartak Velka Bites
15/06/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Pelhrimov	3-3 HT 1-1	FC Spartak Velka Bites
12/11/23 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Spartak Velka Bites	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Pelhrimov

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	4	4	0	0	15	3	12
2	Kravare	4	4	0	0	15	4	12
3	FC Vratimov	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	Hlucin	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
5	Jiskra Rymarov	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Opava B	4	2	1	1	9	7	7
7	FK Sumperk	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
8	SK Zabreh	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
9	TJ Novy Jicin	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
10	SK Stonava	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
11	Pusta Polom	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
12	Bridlicna	4	1	0	3	5	11	3
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	SSK Bilovec	4	0	1	3	3	11	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	4	0	0	4	3	11	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	4	0	0	4	3	16	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Spartak Velka Bites	FK Pelhrimov
SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou	1-0 W	2-2 D
FS Trebic	1-0 W	5-2 W
TJ Tatran Bohunice	0-4 L	1-2 L
FC Chotebor	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Kurim	1-1 D	1-8 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Pelhrimov (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Spartak Velka Bites

DLWWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
15/08	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-4	8	1	L
13/06	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
07/06	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/05	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
17/05	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
10/05	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	2	7	D

FK Pelhrimov

LWLWWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
23/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
09/08	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/06	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
06/06	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/05	TJ Dalnice Sperice Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-4	1-8	–	–	L
17/05	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-2	5	0	W
10/05	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-4	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Spartak Velka Bites vs FK Pelhrimov?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Spartak Velka Bites win (49%). Probabilities: FC Spartak Velka Bites 49%, draw 23%, FK Pelhrimov 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Spartak Velka Bites vs FK Pelhrimov?

The model expects 3.64 goals (FC Spartak Velka Bites 2.07 · FK Pelhrimov 1.57), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Spartak Velka Bites vs FK Pelhrimov?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.