Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Nove Sady vs Bzenec

Team pages: FK Nove Sady · Bzenec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

FK Nove Sady1.54

Bzenec2.1

1X2

28% 23% 50%

FK Nove Sady Draw Bzenec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Nove Sady 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLLLL

Bzenec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWLWL

Head-to-head

FK Nove Sady 2–1–3 Bzenec (6 last)

Bzenec5-0FK Nove Sady
FK Nove Sady1-3Bzenec
FK Nove Sady5-1Bzenec
Bzenec1-1FK Nove Sady
FK Nove Sady4-3Bzenec
Bzenec5-0FK Nove Sady

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Nove Sady 1377 · Bzenec 1500

	FK Nove Sady	Draw	Bzenec
Our model	27%	23%	50%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bzenec (rating 1377 vs 1500).
H2H favours Bzenec: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Nove Sady	Bzenec
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 3.4	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.8	2.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +24’	3.25	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Nove Sady 2–1–3 Bzenec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Bzenec	5-0 HT 2-0	FK Nove Sady
09/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Nove Sady	1-3 HT 1-0	Bzenec
07/06/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Nove Sady	5-1 HT 2-1	Bzenec
02/11/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Bzenec	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Nove Sady
13/04/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Nove Sady	4-3 HT 3-0	Bzenec
09/09/23 Czechia 4. Liga	Bzenec	5-0 HT 3-0	FK Nove Sady

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Kravare	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	SK Zabreh	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Opava B	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	TJ Novy Jicin	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	FK Sumperk	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	FC Vratimov	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
7	Pusta Polom	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Jiskra Rymarov	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Hlucin	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	SK Stonava	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	SSK Bilovec	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Frydek Mistek B	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	Bridlicna	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Nove Sady	Bzenec
Tatran Vsechovice	1-6 L	3-4 L
Slavicin	0-1 L	0-1 L
CSK Uhersky Brod	4-4 D	1-1 D
TJ Sokol Lanzhot	1-1 D	0-3 L
SFK Holesov	0-4 L	2-0 W
Breclav	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bzenec (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Nove Sady

LLLDDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-4	1-6	2	3	L
12/08	MFK Vitkovice Czechia Cup	0-1	0-6	1	4	L
08/08	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
13/06	TJ Skastice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
05/06	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 4. Liga	3-2	4-4	1	5	D
02/06	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/05	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
23/05	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
08/05	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-6	3	6	L
25/04	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L

Bzenec

LLWLDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
12/08	FK Hodonin Czechia Cup	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
09/08	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-5	1	2	L
25/07	Breclav Czechia Cup	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/07	SC Znojmo Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	4	0	D
12/06	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/06	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/05	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
16/05	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Nove Sady vs Bzenec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bzenec win (50%). Probabilities: FK Nove Sady 28%, draw 23%, Bzenec 50%.

How many goals are expected in FK Nove Sady vs Bzenec?

The model expects 3.64 goals (FK Nove Sady 1.54 · Bzenec 2.1), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Nove Sady vs Bzenec?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.