Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 23/08, 16:30

Prediction: FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk

Team pages: FK Kozlovice · Sternberk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

FK Kozlovice2.72

Sternberk1.17

1X2

70% 17% 14%

FK Kozlovice Draw Sternberk

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kozlovice 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWWWWD

Sternberk 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

FK Kozlovice 4–1–1 Sternberk (6 last)

FK Kozlovice3-1Sternberk
Sternberk1-1FK Kozlovice
Sternberk3-2FK Kozlovice
FK Kozlovice1-0Sternberk
Sternberk0-3FK Kozlovice
FK Kozlovice3-1Sternberk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kozlovice 1562 · Sternberk 1415

	FK Kozlovice	Draw	Sternberk
Our model	69%	17%	13%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kozlovice (rating 1562 vs 1415).
H2H favours FK Kozlovice: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kozlovice	Sternberk
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.8	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +4’	1.28	5.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kozlovice 4–1–1 Sternberk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Kozlovice	3-1 HT 1-0	Sternberk
11/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Kozlovice
30/04/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	3-2 HT 2-1	FK Kozlovice
11/08/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Kozlovice	1-0 HT 0-0	Sternberk
16/03/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Kozlovice
13/08/23 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Kozlovice	3-1 HT 0-0	Sternberk

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Hlucin	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
3	Kravare	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	SK Zabreh	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Opava B	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	TJ Novy Jicin	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	FK Sumperk	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	FC Vratimov	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
8	Pusta Polom	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
10	Jiskra Rymarov	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	SK Stonava	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	SSK Bilovec	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Frydek Mistek B	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Bridlicna	3	0	0	3	2	10	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kozlovice	Sternberk
FC Strani	2-2 D	1-1 D
Bzenec	5-1 W	1-3 L
Breclav	1-0 W	1-3 L
Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B	3-0 W	5-2 W
FC Brumov	5-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kozlovice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kozlovice

DWDLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	7	D
09/08	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-1	4	2	W
10/06	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
07/06	TJ Skastice Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-1	6	4	W
03/06	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
31/05	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/05	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	5-1	5	5	W
25/04	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Sternberk

LDDLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
03/06	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
30/05	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
24/05	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-2	5	2	W
12/05	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-4	8	1	L
09/05	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/05	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kozlovice win (70%). Probabilities: FK Kozlovice 70%, draw 17%, Sternberk 14%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?

The model expects 3.88 goals (FK Kozlovice 2.72 · Sternberk 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.