Football · Japan Football League · 17/10, 06:00

Prediction: Honda FC vs Maruyasu Okazaki

Team pages: Honda FC · Maruyasu Okazaki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Honda FC1.26

Maruyasu Okazaki0.77

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Honda FC Draw Maruyasu Okazaki

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Honda FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWLD

Maruyasu Okazaki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Honda FC 3–3–0 Maruyasu Okazaki (6 last)

Maruyasu Okazaki0-0Honda FC
Maruyasu Okazaki1-2Honda FC
Honda FC2-0Maruyasu Okazaki
Honda FC0-0Maruyasu Okazaki
Maruyasu Okazaki1-1Honda FC
Honda FC1-0Maruyasu Okazaki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honda FC 1526 · Maruyasu Okazaki 1466

	Honda FC	Draw	Maruyasu Okazaki
Our model	47%	32%	21%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honda FC (rating 1526 vs 1466).
H2H favours Honda FC: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honda FC	Maruyasu Okazaki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.84
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +5’	1.83	3.30	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +54’	1.84	3.46	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Honda FC 3–3–0 Maruyasu Okazaki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Japan JFL Cup	Maruyasu Okazaki	0-0 HT 0-0	Honda FC
26/10/25 Japan Football League	Maruyasu Okazaki	1-2 HT 0-2	Honda FC
28/06/25 Japan Football League	Honda FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Maruyasu Okazaki
20/07/24 Japan Football League	Honda FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Maruyasu Okazaki
16/03/24 Japan Football League	Maruyasu Okazaki	1-1 HT 0-1	Honda FC
11/11/23 Japan Football League	Honda FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Maruyasu Okazaki

Standings · Japan Football League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criacao Shinjuku	7	5	1	1	8	4	16
2	Verspah Oita	7	4	2	1	11	8	14
3	Vonds Ichihara	7	4	1	2	9	6	13
4	Reinmeer Aomori	7	4	1	2	8	7	13
5	Honda FC	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
6	Veertien Mie	7	4	0	3	11	7	12
7	Azul Claro Numazu	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
8	YSCC	7	4	0	3	13	12	12
9	Okinawa SV	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
10	Minebea Mitsumi	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
11	Maruyasu Okazaki	7	2	0	5	8	10	6
12	Grulla Morioka FC	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
13	J-Lease FC	6	1	2	3	6	7	5
14	FC Tiamo Hirakata	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
15	Briobecca Urayasu SC	7	1	1	5	6	12	4
16	Yokogawa Musashino FC	6	1	0	5	8	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honda FC	Maruyasu Okazaki
Grulla Morioka FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Minebea Mitsumi	0-1 L	3-2 W
YSCC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Reinmeer Aomori	0-2 L	1-2 L
Vonds Ichihara	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Maruyasu Okazaki (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honda FC

WWLWWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
03/10	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	8	0	L
27/09	YSCC Japan Football League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
12/09	Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League	2-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
29/08	J-Lease FC Japan Football League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/11	Briobecca Urayasu SC Japan Football League	2-1	2-3	5	0	L
16/11	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
08/11	Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	10	0	W

Maruyasu Okazaki

DDWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	YSCC Japan Football League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
04/10	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
27/09	Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
05/09	FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League	3-0	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Verspah Oita Japan Football League	1-1	1-2	8	0	L
23/11	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	0-2	3-2	5	0	W
15/11	Asuka FC Japan Football League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
08/11	Reilac Shiga Japan Football League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honda FC vs Maruyasu Okazaki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honda FC win (48%). Probabilities: Honda FC 48%, draw 29%, Maruyasu Okazaki 23%.

How many goals are expected in Honda FC vs Maruyasu Okazaki?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Honda FC 1.26 · Maruyasu Okazaki 0.77), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Honda FC vs Maruyasu Okazaki?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.