Football · Panama LPF · 02/08, 01:15

Prediction: Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador

Team pages: Sporting San Miguelito · Plaza Amador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Sporting San Miguelito1.29

Plaza Amador1.42

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Sporting San Miguelito Draw Plaza Amador

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting San Miguelito 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDLWLD

Plaza Amador 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Sporting San Miguelito 3–1–2 Plaza Amador (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito0-3Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador0-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-1Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador2-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-0Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador2-0Sporting San Miguelito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting San Miguelito 1487 · Plaza Amador 1571

	Sporting San Miguelito	Draw	Plaza Amador
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1487 vs 1571).
H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting San Miguelito	Plaza Amador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.8	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 20:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.24 ★
2	1.90 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +5’	3.60	3.25	1.90
15:04 +20’	2.63▼	3.10▼	2.45▲
16:22 +2’	2.45▼	3.10	2.63▲
17:40 +4’	2.63▲	3.10	2.45▼
20:00 +18’	2.75▲	3.10	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14	3.79	3.29	1.91
00:46	3.79	3.28▼	1.91
15:23 +1’	2.38▼	3.36▲	2.68▲
16:24	2.37▼	3.35▼	2.65▼
20:18	2.90▲	3.27▼	2.14▼
23:40	2.54▼	3.23▼	2.41▲
00:34 +1’	2.56▲	3.17▼	2.43▲
08:57	2.75▲	3.17	2.28▼
15:22 +1’	2.74▼	3.24▲	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting San Miguelito 3–1–2 Plaza Amador

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-3 HT 0-2	Plaza Amador
18/01/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	0-3 HT 0-2	Sporting San Miguelito
09/11/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 HT 1-1	Plaza Amador
30/10/25 CONCACAF Central American Cup	Plaza Amador	2-3 HT 2-1	Sporting San Miguelito
23/10/25 CONCACAF Central American Cup	Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador
17/08/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	2-0 HT 2-0	Sporting San Miguelito

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza FC Panama	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
2	Herrera FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	Plaza Amador	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
4	UMECIT	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
5	CD Arabe Unido	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
6	Union Cocle	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting San Miguelito	Plaza Amador
Tauro FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Alianza FC Panama	2-3 L	2-2 D
UMECIT	2-2 D	3-0 W
CD Arabe Unido	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sporting San Miguelito

WDLLLDLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
26/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
14/04	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	2	12	D
06/04	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
30/03	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
23/03	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-0	2-3	7	7	L
15/03	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
08/03	Union Cocle Panama LPF	2-1	2-1	4	12	W

Plaza Amador

WDWDWDWDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Diriangen CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-3	2-4	13	5	L
25/07	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	0	6	D
24/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
16/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
10/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/04	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	2-2	10	7	D
20/04	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	3-0	6	7	W
12/04	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
05/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Amador win (38%). Probabilities: Sporting San Miguelito 33%, draw 29%, Plaza Amador 38%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Sporting San Miguelito 1.29 · Plaza Amador 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.