Football · Panama LPF · 04/08, 03:00

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Herrera FC

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · Herrera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.7

Herrera FC0.86

1X2

57% 25% 18%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw Herrera FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDWLDD

Herrera FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 4–1–1 Herrera FC (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-2Herrera FC
Herrera FC0-4CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Herrera FC0-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-0Herrera FC
CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-2Herrera FC
Herrera FC3-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1497 · Herrera FC 1412

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	Herrera FC
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera (rating 1497 vs 1412).
H2H favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Herrera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	6.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 7.18 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:18 +10’	1.45	3.80	6.00
22:36 +2’	1.57▲	3.70▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:37	1.58	3.14	7.06
13:49	1.57▼	3.17▲	7.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 4–1–1 Herrera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 HT 1-0	Herrera FC
17/01/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	0-4 HT 0-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
18/10/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	0-2 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
27/07/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-0 HT 1-0	Herrera FC
03/05/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-2 HT 2-0	Herrera FC
02/02/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	3-2 HT 0-2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
2	Herrera FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Veraguas CD	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	CD Universitario	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
6	Union Cocle	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Herrera FC
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	2-2 D	1-2 L
CD Universitario	3-2 W	0-2 L
San Francisco FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Union Cocle	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

LLLDDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
21/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
12/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
05/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
31/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
22/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	11	L
16/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Herrera FC

DDLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
02/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
26/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
12/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	2	18	L
07/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
29/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
24/03	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
15/03	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
07/03	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Herrera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (57%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 57%, draw 25%, Herrera FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Herrera FC?

The model expects 2.56 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.7 · Herrera FC 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Herrera FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.