Football · Panama LPF · 13/09, 23:00

Prediction: Herrera FC vs UMECIT

Team pages: Herrera FC · UMECIT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Herrera FC0.89

UMECIT1.24

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Herrera FC Draw UMECIT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Herrera FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLDLLL

UMECIT 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDLLDW

Head-to-head

Herrera FC 2–4 UMECIT (6 last)

UMECIT1-0Herrera FC
UMECIT1-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC2-1UMECIT
UMECIT2-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC2-0UMECIT
UMECIT1-0Herrera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrera FC 1426 · UMECIT 1450

	Herrera FC	Draw	UMECIT
Our model	25%	32%	43%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UMECIT: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrera FC	UMECIT
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.20

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.38
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:45 +9’	3.30	3.20	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +43’	3.21	3.41	2.05
23:02 +45’	3.30▲	3.47▲	1.99▼
14:10 +84’	3.38▲	3.35▼	2.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrera FC 2–0–4 UMECIT

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
23/09/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
06/04/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-1 HT 0-1	UMECIT
17/02/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	2-1 HT 1-1	Herrera FC
13/10/24 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT
18/08/24 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	7	4	2	1	16	10	14
2	Veraguas CD	7	2	4	1	11	11	10
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
4	CD Universitario	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
5	Herrera FC	7	1	2	4	6	13	5
6	Union Cocle	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrera FC	UMECIT
Plaza Amador	1-4 L	0-3 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-3 L	0-1 L
Veraguas CD	2-2 D	1-1 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 D	2-0 W
Union Cocle	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UMECIT (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrera FC

DLLWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
31/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
02/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
26/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	5	3	D

UMECIT

DDLDDDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
24/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
16/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	9	L
10/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrera FC vs UMECIT?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UMECIT win (44%). Probabilities: Herrera FC 26%, draw 30%, UMECIT 44%.

How many goals are expected in Herrera FC vs UMECIT?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Herrera FC 0.89 · UMECIT 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrera FC vs UMECIT?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.