Football · Panama LPF · 13/09, 01:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Plaza Amador

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · Plaza Amador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.35

Plaza Amador1.81

1X2

27% 26% 47%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw Plaza Amador

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDLWLL

Plaza Amador 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–2–3 Plaza Amador (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-1Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador4-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-2Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador3-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0Plaza Amador
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-1Plaza Amador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1448 · Plaza Amador 1584

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	Plaza Amador
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1448 vs 1584).
H2H favours Plaza Amador: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Plaza Amador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.37
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.00 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:08 +59’	3.00	3.25	2.10
22:58 +13’	3.60▲	3.40▲	1.85▼
00:42 +8’	2.90▼	3.25▼	2.15▲
10:42 +29’	3.30▲	3.40▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +108’	3.63	3.47	1.89
23:18 +92’	3.37▼	3.38▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–2–3 Plaza Amador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador
23/11/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	4-0 HT 2-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
16/11/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 HT 2-0	Plaza Amador
28/09/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	3-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
25/03/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador
01/12/24 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador

Standings · Panama LPF · Liga Panamena, Clausura 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veraguas CD	16	7	4	5	26	23	25
2	Union Cocle	16	5	8	3	16	11	23
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	16	4	8	4	18	14	20
4	San Francisco FC	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
5	CD Universitario	16	3	5	8	19	27	14
6	Herrera FC	16	1	5	10	13	37	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Plaza Amador
UMECIT	0-2 L	3-0 W
Tauro FC	1-2 L	3-2 W
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	1-4 L
Herrera FC	0-0 D	4-1 W
Alianza FC Panama	2-2 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

WLDDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W

Plaza Amador

DWDDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	7	3	W
30/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	4	2	L
24/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	3-0	0	2	W
17/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
09/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
02/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
25/07	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	0	6	D
24/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
16/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
10/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Plaza Amador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Amador win (47%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 27%, draw 26%, Plaza Amador 47%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Plaza Amador?

The model expects 3.16 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.35 · Plaza Amador 1.81), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Plaza Amador?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.