Football · Argentina Championship Women · 12/07, 20:00
Prediction: Newell's Old Boys (W) vs CA Independiente Women
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Newell's Old Boys (W)1.07
CA Independiente Women0.97
1X2
Newell's Old Boys (W)
Draw
CA Independiente Women
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newell's Old Boys (W)
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
CA Independiente Women
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newell's Old Boys (W)
2–1–1
CA Independiente Women
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newell's Old Boys (W) 1381 · CA Independiente Women 1460
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | Draw | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente Women (rating 1381 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Newell's Old Boys (W): 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.1 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newell's Old Boys (W) 2–1–1 CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's Old Boys (W) |
| 08/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Newell's Old Boys (W) |
| 10/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente Women |
| 23/06/24 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Newell's Old Boys (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Club (W) | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Belgrano (W) | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 23 | 19 |
| 8 | Banfield (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 18 |
| 10 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | San Luis FC (W) | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 12 | Huracan (W) | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Lanus (W) | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 30 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newell's Old Boys (W) | CA Independiente Women |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 0-1 L | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente Women (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newell's Old Boys (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/06 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 08/05 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newell's Old Boys (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newell's Old Boys (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Newell's Old Boys (W) 37%, draw 31%, CA Independiente Women 32%.
How many goals are expected in Newell's Old Boys (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Newell's Old Boys (W) 1.07 · CA Independiente Women 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newell's Old Boys (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.