Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 05/09, 10:15

Prediction: SK Steti vs Chomutov

Team pages: SK Steti · Chomutov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

SK Steti1

Chomutov2.17

1X2

16% 21% 64%

SK Steti Draw Chomutov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Steti 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLLLWL

Chomutov 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

SK Steti 0–2–4 Chomutov (6 last)

SK Steti0-1Chomutov
Chomutov2-1SK Steti
Chomutov1-1SK Steti
SK Steti0-1Chomutov
SK Steti0-0Chomutov
Chomutov3-1SK Steti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Steti 1446 · Chomutov 1604

	SK Steti	Draw	Chomutov
Our model	15%	21%	63%
Market	16%	20%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chomutov (rating 1446 vs 1604).
H2H favours Chomutov: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Steti	Chomutov
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	2.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:45 +5’	5.50	4.50	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Steti 0–2–4 Chomutov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Steti	0-1 HT 0-1	Chomutov
06/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	2-1 HT 1-1	SK Steti
08/06/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	1-1 HT 1-1	SK Steti
11/11/23 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Steti	0-1 HT 0-0	Chomutov
30/04/22 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Steti	0-0 HT 0-0	Chomutov
18/09/21 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	3-1 HT 2-1	SK Steti

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	4	4	0	0	15	3	12
2	Kravare	4	4	0	0	15	4	12
3	FC Vratimov	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	Hlucin	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
5	Jiskra Rymarov	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Opava B	4	2	1	1	9	7	7
7	FK Sumperk	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
8	SK Zabreh	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
9	TJ Novy Jicin	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
10	SK Stonava	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
11	Pusta Polom	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
12	Bridlicna	4	1	0	3	5	11	3
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	SSK Bilovec	4	0	1	3	3	11	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	4	0	0	4	3	11	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	4	0	0	4	3	16	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Steti	Chomutov
Banik Sokolov	1-3 L	1-0 W
SK Rapid Psary	1-0 W	2-1 W
SK Slany	1-3 L	4-1 W
FK Ostrov	3-1 W	0-1 L
FK Louny	3-0 W	2-1 W
Viktoria Marianske Lazne	5-3 W	3-0 W
Meteor Prague VIII	2-4 L	4-0 W
FK Usti nad Labem B	3-3 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chomutov (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Steti

DLWWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
15/08	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
13/06	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
06/06	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
30/05	FK Louny Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
23/05	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-3	6	3	W
17/05	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
09/05	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	3-3	5	6	D

Chomutov

WWWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	0	W
21/08	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
15/08	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
07/08	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/06	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
05/06	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	4-1	6	1	W
30/05	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
22/05	FK Louny Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
15/05	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/05	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Steti vs Chomutov?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chomutov win (64%). Probabilities: SK Steti 16%, draw 21%, Chomutov 64%.

How many goals are expected in SK Steti vs Chomutov?

The model expects 3.17 goals (SK Steti 1 · Chomutov 2.17), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Steti vs Chomutov?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.