Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs Arborg
Expected goals: 3.53 (UMF Selfoss 2.54 · Arborg 1). The model gives 71% home, 16% draw, 13% away. Under 4.25 goals (59%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves UMF Selfoss with 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; Arborg has piled up 6-2-2 in the same span.
| UMF Selfoss | Draw | Arborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 14% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UMF Selfoss | Arborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.8 | 2.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.4 | 3.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UMF Selfoss
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/06 | Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Arborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/06 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/06 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 11/06 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland 4 Deild |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/06 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
6-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 21/05 | Ulfarnir Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 07/05 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs Arborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UMF Selfoss win (71%). Probabilities: UMF Selfoss 71%, draw 16%, Arborg 13%.
How many goals are expected in UMF Selfoss vs Arborg?
The model expects 3.53 goals (UMF Selfoss 2.54 · Arborg 1), with a 59% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UMF Selfoss vs Arborg?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.