Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 12/07, 22:15
Prediction: Sporting Cristal (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Sporting Cristal (W)1.01
Universitario de Deportes (W)2.02
1X2
Sporting Cristal (W)
Draw
Universitario de Deportes (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Cristal (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Cristal (W)
0–3–3
Universitario de Deportes (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal (W) 1534 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1611
| Sporting Cristal (W) | Draw | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (W) (rating 1534 vs 1611).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Cristal (W) | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.2 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 89/0/11% | 57/14/29% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal (W) 0–3–3 Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 02/11/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 19/10/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting Cristal (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 21/09/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 2-0 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 21/05/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting Cristal (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 03/08/24 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
Standings · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · Liga Femenina 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Biavo FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carlos Mannucci (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yanapuma (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FBC Melgar (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Killas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Flamengo FBC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Cristal (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UNSAAC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Cristal (W) | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar (W) | 8-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Alianza Lima (W) | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| UNSAAC (W) | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| FC Killas (W) | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Flamengo FBC (W) | 5-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Cristal (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 8-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/05 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal (W) 17%, draw 24%, Universitario de Deportes (W) 59%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Sporting Cristal (W) 1.01 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 2.02), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.