Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 18/07, 03:00
Prediction: Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Sporting Cristal (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Universitario de Deportes (W)2.46
Sporting Cristal (W)1.48
1X2
Universitario de Deportes (W)
Draw
Sporting Cristal (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Universitario de Deportes (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Sporting Cristal (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universitario de Deportes (W)
3–3–0
Sporting Cristal (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1610 · Sporting Cristal (W) 1535
| Universitario de Deportes (W) | Draw | Sporting Cristal (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (W) (rating 1610 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universitario de Deportes (W) | Sporting Cristal (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.7 / 0.6 | 3.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/14/29% | 89/0/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes (W) 3–3–0 Sporting Cristal (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting Cristal (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 25/04/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 02/11/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 19/10/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting Cristal (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 21/09/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 2-0 | Sporting Cristal (W) |
| 21/05/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting Cristal (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
Standings · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · Liga Femenina 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Biavo FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carlos Mannucci (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yanapuma (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FBC Melgar (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Killas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Flamengo FBC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Cristal (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UNSAAC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universitario de Deportes (W) | Sporting Cristal (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| UNSAAC (W) | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Killas (W) | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Flamengo FBC (W) | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| FBC Melgar (W) | 3-0 W | 8-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 05/07 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/05 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Sporting Cristal (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 05/07 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 8-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Sporting Cristal (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes (W) 58%, draw 21%, Sporting Cristal (W) 21%.
How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Sporting Cristal (W)?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Universitario de Deportes (W) 2.46 · Sporting Cristal (W) 1.48), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Sporting Cristal (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.