Football · Czechia First League · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: Hradec Kralove vs Sparta Prague

Team pages: Hradec Kralove · Sparta Prague

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Hradec Kralove1.12

Sparta Prague1.43

1X2

28% 28% 43%

Hradec Kralove Draw Sparta Prague

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hradec Kralove 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWDWL

Sparta Prague 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Hradec Kralove 1–5 Sparta Prague (6 last)

Sparta Prague2-1Hradec Kralove
Sparta Prague2-0Hradec Kralove
Hradec Kralove2-1Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague3-0Hradec Kralove
Hradec Kralove0-2Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague2-1Hradec Kralove

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hradec Kralove 1544 · Sparta Prague 1533

	Hradec Kralove	Draw	Sparta Prague
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sparta Prague: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hradec Kralove	Sparta Prague
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	3.2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +3’	3.10	3.40	2.10
19:22 +20’	3.20▲	3.25▼	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hradec Kralove 1–0–5 Sparta Prague

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	2-1 HT 1-1	Hradec Kralove
15/02/26 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	2-0 HT 1-0	Hradec Kralove
14/09/25 Czechia First League	Hradec Kralove	2-1 HT 2-1	Sparta Prague
09/02/25 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	3-0 HT 1-0	Hradec Kralove
31/08/24 Czechia First League	Hradec Kralove	0-2 HT 0-2	Sparta Prague
17/03/24 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	2-1 HT 1-0	Hradec Kralove

Standings · Czechia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Slavia Prague	6	4	2	0	17	5	14
2	Slovan Liberec	6	4	1	1	8	3	13
3	Mlada Boleslav	5	3	2	0	11	6	11
4	FC Brno	5	3	1	1	9	5	10
5	Sigma Olomouc	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
6	FK Teplice	6	3	1	2	12	12	10
7	Sparta Prague	6	3	0	3	12	10	9
8	FK Jablonec	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
9	Banik Ostrava	5	3	0	2	4	6	9
10	Hradec Kralove	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
11	Viktoria Plzen	5	1	3	1	11	12	6
12	Bohemians 1905	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
13	SK Artis Brno	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
14	Slovacko	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
15	Pardubice	6	0	1	5	5	12	1
16	FC Trinity Zlin	6	0	0	6	5	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hradec Kralove	Sparta Prague
Slovan Liberec	0-2 L	2-0 W
Slavia Prague	3-1 W	0-3 L
Viktoria Plzen	1-3 L	0-0 D
FK Teplice	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Prague (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hradec Kralove

WLDWWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Slovan Liberec Czechia First League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
09/08	Banik Ostrava Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/07	Pardubice Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
24/05	Sparta Prague Czechia First League	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
17/05	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
13/05	Slovan Liberec Czechia First League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
10/05	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
03/05	Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
25/04	FK Teplice Czechia First League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Sparta Prague

WDWWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	0-1	0-3	13	4	L
22/08	SK Artis Brno Czechia First League	2-0	4-0	2	1	W
15/08	FK Teplice Czechia First League	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
08/08	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
31/07	FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	FC Brno Czechia First League	0-1	1-3	8	0	L
24/05	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
17/05	Slovan Liberec Czechia First League	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
12/05	Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
09/05	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	1-1	3-0	7	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hradec Kralove vs Sparta Prague?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sparta Prague win (43%). Probabilities: Hradec Kralove 28%, draw 28%, Sparta Prague 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hradec Kralove vs Sparta Prague?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Hradec Kralove 1.12 · Sparta Prague 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hradec Kralove vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.