Football · Czechia First League · 12/09, 18:00
Prediction: Sparta Prague vs FK Jablonec
Team pages: Sparta Prague · FK Jablonec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Sparta Prague2.04
FK Jablonec0.9
1X2
Sparta Prague
Draw
FK Jablonec
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sparta Prague
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
FK Jablonec
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sparta Prague
4–1–1
FK Jablonec
(6 last)
- Sparta Prague2-0FK Jablonec
- Sparta Prague3-1FK Jablonec
- FK Jablonec1-1Sparta Prague
- Sparta Prague1-3FK Jablonec
- Sparta Prague2-1FK Jablonec
- FK Jablonec1-2Sparta Prague
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sparta Prague 1509 · FK Jablonec 1528
| Sparta Prague | Draw | FK Jablonec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sparta Prague: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sparta Prague | FK Jablonec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.9 | 2.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Prague 4–1–1 FK Jablonec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jablonec |
| 18/04/26 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 3-1 HT 2-1 | FK Jablonec |
| 19/07/25 Czechia First League | FK Jablonec | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sparta Prague |
| 04/05/25 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 1-3 HT 0-2 | FK Jablonec |
| 15/12/24 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 2-1 HT 0-1 | FK Jablonec |
| 17/08/24 Czechia First League | FK Jablonec | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sparta Prague |
Standings · Czechia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Brno | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
| 6 | FK Teplice | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Hradec Kralove | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Viktoria Plzen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | Sparta Prague | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| 11 | Banik Ostrava | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | SK Artis Brno | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
| 14 | Slovacko | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 15 | Pardubice | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| 16 | FC Trinity Zlin | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sparta Prague | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Hradec Kralove | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Slavia Prague | 0-3 L | 1-5 L |
| FK Teplice | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Slovan Liberec | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Viktoria Plzen | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sparta Prague (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sparta Prague
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Slavia Prague Czechia First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | SK Artis Brno Czechia First League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Teplice Czechia First League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | FC Brno Czechia First League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Slovan Liberec Czechia First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
FK Jablonec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Slovan Liberec Czechia First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/09 | Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | FK Teplice Czechia First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Slovacko Czechia First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Pardubice Czechia First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Slovan Liberec Czechia First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League |
0-4 | 0-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Slavia Prague Czechia First League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sparta Prague vs FK Jablonec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Prague win (63%). Probabilities: Sparta Prague 63%, draw 22%, FK Jablonec 15%.
How many goals are expected in Sparta Prague vs FK Jablonec?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Sparta Prague 2.04 · FK Jablonec 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs FK Jablonec?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.