Football · Czechia First League · 11/10, 18:00

Prediction: Sparta Prague vs Pardubice

Team pages: Sparta Prague · Pardubice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Sparta Prague2.59

Pardubice1.06

1X2

69% 18% 12%

Sparta Prague Draw Pardubice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Prague 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLWW

Pardubice 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLDWW

Head-to-head

Sparta Prague 5–1 Pardubice (6 last)

Sparta Prague2-4Pardubice
Pardubice1-3Sparta Prague
Pardubice1-2Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague2-1Pardubice
Pardubice1-2Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague5-2Pardubice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Prague 1570 · Pardubice 1528

	Sparta Prague	Draw	Pardubice
Our model	70%	18%	13%
Market	69%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Prague (rating 1570 vs 1528).
H2H favours Sparta Prague: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Prague	Pardubice
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.6	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.32 → 1.31▼	Pinn 1.31
X	5.36 → 5.46▲	Pinn 5.46
2	7.94 → 8.02▲	Pinn 8.02

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +420’	1.32	5.36	7.94
17:04 +47’	1.32▼	5.40▲	7.99▲
07:53 +45’	1.31▼	5.46▲	8.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Prague 5–0–1 Pardubice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/11/25 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	2-4 HT 0-2	Pardubice
03/08/25 Czechia First League	Pardubice	1-3 HT 0-1	Sparta Prague
19/04/25 Czechia First League	Pardubice	1-2 HT 0-1	Sparta Prague
19/07/24 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	2-1 HT 1-1	Pardubice
03/12/23 Czechia First League	Pardubice	1-2 HT 1-1	Sparta Prague
05/08/23 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	5-2 HT 3-0	Pardubice

Standings · Czechia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Slavia Prague	10	8	2	0	26	6	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	6	2	1	13	4	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	9	5	2	2	17	12	17
4	FK Jablonec	10	5	2	3	12	9	17
5	FC Brno	10	5	1	4	12	13	16
6	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16	13	16
7	FK Teplice	9	5	1	3	17	15	16
8	Sparta Prague	9	5	0	4	18	12	15
9	Hradec Kralove	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
10	Viktoria Plzen	10	3	4	3	20	17	13
11	Bohemians 1905	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
12	Banik Ostrava	10	3	1	6	7	18	10
13	SK Artis Brno	10	2	2	6	11	20	8
14	Pardubice	9	2	2	5	9	14	8
15	Slovacko	9	0	4	5	7	16	4
16	FC Trinity Zlin	10	0	1	9	8	20	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Prague	Pardubice
Sigma Olomouc	3-0 W	1-3 L
FK Jablonec	2-0 W	0-2 L
Hradec Kralove	1-2 L	1-2 L
Slavia Prague	0-3 L	1-2 L
SK Artis Brno	4-0 W	1-2 L
Mlada Boleslav	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Prague (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Prague

WLWLWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
12/09	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	1-2	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	0-1	0-3	13	4	L
22/08	SK Artis Brno Czechia First League	2-0	4-0	2	1	W
15/08	FK Teplice Czechia First League	3-1	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	FC Brno Czechia First League	0-1	1-3	8	0	L
24/05	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	7	3	W

Pardubice

LLLLDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
13/09	Banik Ostrava Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/09	Slovacko Czechia First League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/08	SK Artis Brno Czechia First League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/08	Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
09/08	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/08	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
26/07	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
10/05	MFK Karvina Czechia First League	1-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Prague win (69%). Probabilities: Sparta Prague 69%, draw 18%, Pardubice 12%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Sparta Prague 2.59 · Pardubice 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.