Football · Peru Liga 2 · 01/08, 22:15

Prediction: Santos FC vs Comerciantes FC

Team pages: Santos FC · Comerciantes FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.77Total

Santos FC0.97

Comerciantes FC0.79

1X2

39% 33% 29%

Santos FC Draw Comerciantes FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Santos FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLWL

Comerciantes FC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWDLDW

Head-to-head

Santos FC 0–2–4 Comerciantes FC (6 last)

Comerciantes FC1-0Santos FC
Santos FC0-0Comerciantes FC
Comerciantes FC3-0Santos FC
Comerciantes FC3-2Santos FC
Santos FC1-1Comerciantes FC
Comerciantes FC1-0Santos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos FC 1482 · Comerciantes FC 1543

	Santos FC	Draw	Comerciantes FC
Our model	37%	36%	27%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Comerciantes FC (rating 1482 vs 1543).
H2H favours Comerciantes FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos FC	Comerciantes FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:03 +7’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos FC 0–2–4 Comerciantes FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos FC
21/09/25 Peru Liga 2	Santos FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes FC
16/08/25 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Santos FC
25/05/25 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Santos FC
05/04/25 Peru Liga 2	Santos FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Comerciantes FC
29/06/24 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos FC

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Comerciantes FC	10	5	5	0	13	6	20
2	Bentin Tacna Heroica	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
3	Alianza Universidad	10	4	2	4	12	10	14
4	Santos FC	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
5	Ayacucho FC	10	3	4	3	9	8	13
6	Sport Huancayo II	9	3	3	3	8	9	12
7	Union Minas	10	2	5	3	7	6	11
8	CD Estudiantil CNI	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
9	Deportivo Binacional	10	1	3	6	7	18	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos FC	Comerciantes FC
Ayacucho FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Deportivo Binacional	3-1 W	3-0 W
Union Minas	0-1 L	0-0 D
CD Estudiantil CNI	0-3 L	0-0 D
Alianza Universidad	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sport Huancayo II	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Comerciantes FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Santos FC

LWWWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
19/07	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/06	CD Los Chankas Peru Copa de la Liga	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
21/06	Ayacucho FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
29/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
23/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
04/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
25/04	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
19/04	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

Comerciantes FC

DDWDDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
11/07	Sport Boys Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/06	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
20/06	Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
22/05	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	3-0	3-0	7	2	W
08/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
03/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	8	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos FC vs Comerciantes FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos FC win (39%). Probabilities: Santos FC 39%, draw 33%, Comerciantes FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Santos FC vs Comerciantes FC?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Santos FC 0.97 · Comerciantes FC 0.79), with a 61% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos FC vs Comerciantes FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.