Football · Peru Liga 2 · 07/08, 22:15
Prediction: Union Comercio vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Team pages: Union Comercio · Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Union Comercio1.92
Academia Deportiva Cantolao0.55
1X2
Union Comercio
Draw
Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Union Comercio
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Academia Deportiva Cantolao
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Comercio
6–0
Academia Deportiva Cantolao
(6 last)
- Academia Deportiva Cantolao0-1Union Comercio
- Union Comercio1-0Academia Deportiva Cantolao
- Academia Deportiva Cantolao0-1Union Comercio
- Union Comercio2-1Academia Deportiva Cantolao
- Academia Deportiva Cantolao1-2Union Comercio
- Union Comercio5-2Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Comercio 1510 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1421
| Union Comercio | Draw | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Comercio (rating 1510 vs 1421).
- H2H favours Union Comercio: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Comercio | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.8 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Comercio 6–0–0 Academia Deportiva Cantolao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Peru Liga 2 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union Comercio |
| 22/06/25 Peru Liga 2 | Union Comercio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao |
| 04/05/25 Peru Liga 2 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union Comercio |
| 26/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao |
| 10/04/23 Peru Liga 1 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Union Comercio |
| 21/09/19 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao |
Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 2 | Union Comercio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Carlos Manucci | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Pirata FC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | CD Universidad San Martin | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 14 |
| 6 | Club Ada Jaen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Comercio | Academia Deportiva Cantolao |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Vallejo | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Club Ada Jaen | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CD Universidad San Martin | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Deportivo Llacuabamba | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Carlos Manucci | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Pirata FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Comercio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Comercio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | Sporting Cristal Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 12 | D |
| 09/05 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Academia Deportiva Cantolao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 19/07 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 28/06 | Sport Boys Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 20/06 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 31/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Union Comercio Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Comercio vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Comercio win (70%). Probabilities: Union Comercio 70%, draw 20%, Academia Deportiva Cantolao 10%.
How many goals are expected in Union Comercio vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Union Comercio 1.92 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 0.55), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Comercio vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.