Football · Peru Liga 2 · 09/08, 20:15

Prediction: Cesar Vallejo vs Pirata FC

Team pages: Cesar Vallejo · Pirata FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Cesar Vallejo1.58

Pirata FC0.87

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Cesar Vallejo Draw Pirata FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cesar Vallejo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Pirata FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cesar Vallejo 2–1–2 Pirata FC (5 last)

Pirata FC2-1Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo2-0Pirata FC
Pirata FC1-0Cesar Vallejo
Pirata FC0-2Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo2-2Pirata FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cesar Vallejo 1453 · Pirata FC 1519

	Cesar Vallejo	Draw	Pirata FC
Our model	53%	28%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pirata FC (rating 1453 vs 1519).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cesar Vallejo	Pirata FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +3’	1.67	3.50	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cesar Vallejo 2–1–2 Pirata FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Peru Liga 2	Pirata FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Cesar Vallejo
21/06/25 Peru Liga 2	Cesar Vallejo	2-0 HT 0-0	Pirata FC
04/05/25 Peru Liga 2	Pirata FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cesar Vallejo
26/10/19 Peru Liga 1	Pirata FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Cesar Vallejo
12/05/19 Peru Liga 1	Cesar Vallejo	2-2 HT 1-1	Pirata FC

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Llacuabamba	9	6	1	2	14	4	19
2	Union Comercio	9	5	3	1	9	2	18
3	Carlos Manucci	10	5	2	3	10	9	17
4	Pirata FC	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
5	CD Universidad San Martin	11	4	2	5	16	13	14
6	Club Ada Jaen	10	2	5	3	8	9	11
7	Cesar Vallejo	9	2	3	4	7	9	9
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	10	0	3	7	5	22	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cesar Vallejo	Pirata FC
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	1-1 D	2-1 W
Union Comercio	0-0 D	2-1 W
Carlos Manucci	2-3 L	0-1 L
Alianza Atletico	0-2 L	2-3 L
Club Ada Jaen	1-1 D	1-3 L
CD Universidad San Martin	0-1 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pirata FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cesar Vallejo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
25/07	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
28/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-3	9	7	L
19/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
14/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
25/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
17/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
09/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
02/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
27/04	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-2	4	7	L

Pirata FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
20/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-2	3-2	7	8	W
10/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
22/06	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
13/06	Universitario de Deportes Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	0	0	W
01/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
11/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
03/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
27/04	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	2-1	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cesar Vallejo vs Pirata FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cesar Vallejo win (53%). Probabilities: Cesar Vallejo 53%, draw 27%, Pirata FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Cesar Vallejo vs Pirata FC?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Cesar Vallejo 1.58 · Pirata FC 0.87), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cesar Vallejo vs Pirata FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.