Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 29/08, 14:30

Prediction: Harkemase Boys vs USV Hercules

Team pages: Harkemase Boys · USV Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Harkemase Boys1.97

USV Hercules1.27

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Harkemase Boys Draw USV Hercules

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Harkemase Boys 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWLWWW

USV Hercules 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Harkemase Boys 2–1 USV Hercules (3 last)

USV Hercules4-0Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys4-2USV Hercules
Harkemase Boys6-0USV Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harkemase Boys 1532 · USV Hercules 1494

	Harkemase Boys	Draw	USV Hercules
Our model	53%	24%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Harkemase Boys: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harkemase Boys	USV Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.4	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0.2	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70
X	4.20 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:54 +1’	1.50	4.20	4.75
09:52 +15’	1.70▲	3.90▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:05 +1’	1.72	3.51	3.83
13:59 +15’	1.68▼	3.64▲	4.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Harkemase Boys 2–0–1 USV Hercules

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	USV Hercules	4-0 HT 1-0	Harkemase Boys
06/12/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	4-2 HT 2-0	USV Hercules
29/08/20 Netherlands Cup	Harkemase Boys	6-0 HT 2-0	USV Hercules

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excelsior '31	2	2	0	0	8	2	6
2	Genemuiden	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
3	ACV Assen	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Harkemase Boys	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	Purmersteijn	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	TEC	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	Hoogeveen	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
8	ADO '20	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
8	VV Eemdijk	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
10	VV Scherpenzeel	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
11	Sportlust '46	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	DOVO	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
13	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
14	Staphorst	2	0	1	1	4	6	1
14	Sparta Nijkerk	2	0	1	1	4	6	1
16	DVS'33 Ermelo	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	HVV Hollandia	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
18	USV Hercules	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harkemase Boys	USV Hercules
Sportlust '46	4-1 W	2-0 W
ROHDA Raalte	2-1 W	1-2 L
Excelsior '31	1-0 W	3-2 W
HSC '21	0-0 D	7-1 W
ADO '20	0-2 L	1-3 L
DOVO	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Harkemase Boys (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harkemase Boys

DLDWLWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	5	2	W
16/05	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	2	0	L
09/05	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/05	Urk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	2-3	10	4	L
25/04	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	HSC '21 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	17	0	D
11/04	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
06/04	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	3	0	D

USV Hercules

LDWWLWWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
16/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	1	0	W
09/05	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	HSC '21 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	7-1	–	–	W
29/03	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
24/03	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harkemase Boys vs USV Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harkemase Boys win (53%). Probabilities: Harkemase Boys 53%, draw 23%, USV Hercules 24%.

How many goals are expected in Harkemase Boys vs USV Hercules?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Harkemase Boys 1.97 · USV Hercules 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Harkemase Boys vs USV Hercules?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.