Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 30/08, 14:00

Prediction: RKSV UDI '19 vs TOGB

Team pages: RKSV UDI '19 · TOGB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

RKSV UDI '192.03

TOGB1.71

1X2

45% 23% 32%

RKSV UDI '19 Draw TOGB

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

RKSV UDI '19 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDW

TOGB 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWWDL

Head-to-head

RKSV UDI '19 2–1–1 TOGB (4 last)

RKSV UDI '195-1TOGB
TOGB3-3RKSV UDI '19
TOGB1-3RKSV UDI '19
TOGB5-1RKSV UDI '19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RKSV UDI '19 1445 · TOGB 1489

	RKSV UDI '19	Draw	TOGB
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TOGB (rating 1445 vs 1489).
H2H favours RKSV UDI '19: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RKSV UDI '19	TOGB
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.7	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	1 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.5	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +4’	2.00	3.90	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RKSV UDI '19 2–1–1 TOGB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	RKSV UDI '19	5-1 HT 2-0	TOGB
27/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TOGB	3-3 HT 2-2	RKSV UDI '19
03/09/25 Netherlands Cup	TOGB	1-3 HT 0-0	RKSV UDI '19
11/12/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TOGB	5-1 HT 4-1	RKSV UDI '19

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	VV Dongen	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	FC Lisse	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
4	Excelsior Maassluis	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	RKSV UDI '19	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	VV Goes	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Roosendaal	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	SV Poortugaal	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	VVSB	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	VV Gemert	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Rijnvogels	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	VV UNA	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	TOGB	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Blauw Geel '38	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
15	Zwaluwen	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
16	EVV Echt	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
17	Groene Ster	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
18	Achilles Veen	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RKSV UDI '19	TOGB
Roosendaal	3-4 L	1-1 D
VV UNA	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rijnvogels	0-3 L	1-0 W
VV Goes	0-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: TOGB (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RKSV UDI '19

LLLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-3	3-4	–	–	L
16/05	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
09/05	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
25/04	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
18/04	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
12/04	Meerssen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-3	2-3	11	7	L
28/03	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
21/03	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

TOGB

DWWDLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	5-1	4	0	W
09/05	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
28/03	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/03	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RKSV UDI '19 vs TOGB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RKSV UDI '19 win (45%). Probabilities: RKSV UDI '19 45%, draw 23%, TOGB 32%.

How many goals are expected in RKSV UDI '19 vs TOGB?

The model expects 3.74 goals (RKSV UDI '19 2.03 · TOGB 1.71), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in RKSV UDI '19 vs TOGB?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.