Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 30/08, 14:30

Prediction: Groene Ster vs VVSB

Team pages: Groene Ster · VVSB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Groene Ster1.18

VVSB1.88

1X2

23% 23% 53%

Groene Ster Draw VVSB

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Groene Ster 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWLL

VVSB 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Groene Ster 0–2–2 VVSB (4 last)

VVSB1-0Groene Ster
Groene Ster1-1VVSB
Groene Ster2-3VVSB
VVSB0-0Groene Ster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Groene Ster 1408 · VVSB 1550

	Groene Ster	Draw	VVSB
Our model	23%	25%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VVSB (rating 1408 vs 1550).
H2H favours VVSB: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Groene Ster	VVSB
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.8	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.7	2.2 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.10

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +10’	3.75	4.10	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Groene Ster 0–2–2 VVSB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	1-0 HT 0-0	Groene Ster
14/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	1-1 HT 1-1	VVSB
05/02/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	2-3 HT 1-2	VVSB
11/09/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	0-0 HT 0-0	Groene Ster

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	VV Dongen	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	FC Lisse	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
4	Excelsior Maassluis	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	RKSV UDI '19	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	VV Goes	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Roosendaal	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	SV Poortugaal	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	VVSB	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	VV Gemert	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Rijnvogels	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	VV UNA	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	TOGB	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Blauw Geel '38	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
15	Zwaluwen	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
16	EVV Echt	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
17	Groene Ster	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
18	Achilles Veen	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Groene Ster	VVSB
VV Gemert	1-2 L	1-0 W
Blauw Geel '38	0-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: VVSB (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Groene Ster

LLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
23/05	ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	1	W
16/05	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	1-5	3	0	L
09/05	Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/04	SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
18/04	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
12/04	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
06/04	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-4	5	2	L
28/03	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L

VVSB

WWLWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/05	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
25/04	Meerssen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
18/04	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	5-1	13	1	W
11/04	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
04/04	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/03	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Groene Ster vs VVSB?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VVSB win (53%). Probabilities: Groene Ster 23%, draw 23%, VVSB 53%.

How many goals are expected in Groene Ster vs VVSB?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Groene Ster 1.18 · VVSB 1.88), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Groene Ster vs VVSB?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.