Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 31/10, 19:30

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise II vs RAEC Mons

Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise II · RAEC Mons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Union Saint Gilloise II1.21

RAEC Mons1.74

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Union Saint Gilloise II Draw RAEC Mons

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Saint Gilloise II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWWWD

RAEC Mons 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLDWW

Head-to-head

Union Saint Gilloise II 0–5 RAEC Mons (5 last)

RAEC Mons2-1Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II1-2RAEC Mons
RAEC Mons2-0Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II2-3RAEC Mons
Union Saint Gilloise II1-3RAEC Mons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise II 1532 · RAEC Mons 1580

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Draw	RAEC Mons
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RAEC Mons (rating 1532 vs 1580).
H2H favours RAEC Mons: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Saint Gilloise II	RAEC Mons
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 4.17 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +4’	3.40	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +9’	4.05	3.59	1.72
05:12 +6’	4.17▲	3.68▲	1.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise II 0–0–5 RAEC Mons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RAEC Mons	2-1 HT 2-1	Union Saint Gilloise II
20/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	1-2 HT 0-1	RAEC Mons
16/02/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RAEC Mons	2-0 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
02/11/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	2-3 HT 2-1	RAEC Mons
05/05/24 Belgium Second Amateur Division ACFF	Union Saint Gilloise II	1-3 HT 1-2	RAEC Mons

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	10	6	2	2	21	9	20
2	RFC Meux	10	6	1	3	16	9	19
3	RWD Molenbeek	10	6	1	3	15	12	19
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
5	RAEC Mons	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
6	Tubize	10	5	2	3	15	11	17
7	Standard Liege II	10	4	1	5	13	8	13
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
9	ROC Charleroi	10	3	3	4	13	22	12
10	RSC Habay	9	2	3	4	8	12	9
11	RCS Onhaye	9	2	1	6	10	20	7
12	FC Flenu	10	0	1	9	10	31	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Saint Gilloise II	RAEC Mons
RCS Onhaye	0-0 D	5-2 W
Sporting Charleroi U23	2-0 W	0-1 L
FC Flenu	5-2 W	4-0 W
RWD Molenbeek	4-2 W	2-1 W
Tubize	1-1 D	2-2 D
Standard Liege II	1-0 W	2-3 L
ROC Charleroi	1-1 D	3-0 W
RSC Habay	2-0 W	2-2 D
RFC Meux	1-2 L	3-0 W
Union Rochefortoise	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 2 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RAEC Mons (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise II

LLWDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
17/10	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
11/10	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	5-2	5	5	W
03/10	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	3-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
19/09	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
05/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
29/08	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
26/08	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	8	L

RAEC Mons

WLWDWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/10	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/10	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
07/10	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	2-2	2-3	6	10	L
03/10	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
20/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	5-2	3	7	W
12/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
05/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
30/08	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RAEC Mons?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RAEC Mons win (49%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise II 26%, draw 25%, RAEC Mons 49%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RAEC Mons?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Union Saint Gilloise II 1.21 · RAEC Mons 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise II vs RAEC Mons?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.