Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: Standard Liege II vs RWD Molenbeek

Team pages: Standard Liege II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Standard Liege II1.23

RWD Molenbeek1.2

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Standard Liege II Draw RWD Molenbeek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Standard Liege II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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RWD Molenbeek 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Standard Liege II 0–2 RWD Molenbeek (2 last)

RWD Molenbeek3-1Standard Liege II
Standard Liege II1-4RWD Molenbeek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Standard Liege II 1488 · RWD Molenbeek 1536

	Standard Liege II	Draw	RWD Molenbeek
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RWD Molenbeek (rating 1488 vs 1536).
H2H favours RWD Molenbeek: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Standard Liege II	RWD Molenbeek
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:34 +27’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:38 +23’	2.71	3.37	2.38
08:37 +19’	2.69▼	3.36▼	2.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Standard Liege II 0–0–2 RWD Molenbeek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/23 Belgium First Division B	RWD Molenbeek	3-1 HT 1-0	Standard Liege II
14/10/22 Belgium First Division B	Standard Liege II	1-4 HT 0-1	RWD Molenbeek

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	10	6	2	2	21	9	20
2	RFC Meux	10	6	1	3	16	9	19
3	RWD Molenbeek	10	6	1	3	15	12	19
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
5	RAEC Mons	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
6	Tubize	10	5	2	3	15	11	17
7	Standard Liege II	10	4	1	5	13	8	13
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
9	ROC Charleroi	10	3	3	4	13	22	12
10	RSC Habay	9	2	3	4	8	12	9
11	RCS Onhaye	9	2	1	6	10	20	7
12	FC Flenu	10	0	1	9	10	31	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Standard Liege II	RWD Molenbeek
Sporting Charleroi U23	0-1 L	1-0 W
FC Flenu	1-0 W	3-0 W
RCS Onhaye	4-1 W	1-0 W
RAEC Mons	3-2 W	1-2 L
Union Rochefortoise	0-1 L	1-1 D
Union Saint Gilloise II	0-1 L	2-4 L
RSC Habay	0-0 D	2-1 W
RFC Meux	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tubize	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RWD Molenbeek (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Standard Liege II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
18/10	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
11/10	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
07/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	2-2	3-2	0	10	W
03/10	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
19/09	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
13/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	7	4	D

RWD Molenbeek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
17/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
10/10	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	2-4	1	5	L
30/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
12/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
06/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
29/08	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	1	1	W
26/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Standard Liege II vs RWD Molenbeek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Standard Liege II win (37%). Probabilities: Standard Liege II 37%, draw 27%, RWD Molenbeek 36%.

How many goals are expected in Standard Liege II vs RWD Molenbeek?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Standard Liege II 1.23 · RWD Molenbeek 1.2), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Standard Liege II vs RWD Molenbeek?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.