Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 15/08, 14:30

Prediction: HSV Hoek vs Koninklijke HFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

HSV Hoek2.26

Koninklijke HFC0.97

1X2

66% 20% 14%

HSV Hoek Draw Koninklijke HFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hoek 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDLWW

Koninklijke HFC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

HSV Hoek 1–1 Koninklijke HFC (2 last)

Koninklijke HFC2-1HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek2-0Koninklijke HFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hoek 1555 · Koninklijke HFC 1435

	HSV Hoek	Draw	Koninklijke HFC
Our model	66%	20%	14%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HSV Hoek (rating 1555 vs 1435).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HSV Hoek	Koninklijke HFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.60

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +3’	1.36	4.60	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hoek 1–0–1 Koninklijke HFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	2-1 HT 2-1	HSV Hoek
23/08/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	2-0 HT 0-0	Koninklijke HFC

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amsterdamsche FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barendrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Treffers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GVVV Veenendaal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	HHC Hardenberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	HSV Hoek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	IJsselmeervogels	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almere City Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kloetinge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Koninklijke HFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kozakken Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quick Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rijnsburgse Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKAV Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ROHDA Raalte	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spakenburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Katwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hoek	Koninklijke HFC
De Treffers	2-2 D	0-1 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	2-0 W	0-2 L
Barendrecht	2-4 L	1-2 L
Almere City Reserves	4-0 W	1-2 L
Amsterdamsche FC	5-1 W	2-1 W
Kozakken Boys	1-2 L	2-3 L
Katwijk	2-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hoek (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HSV Hoek

WLWWLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Capelle Club Friendly List	3-0	6-1	–	–	W
05/08	SK Roeselare Club Friendly List	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/07	NAC Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	4	1	L
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L
25/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
18/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	4-0	5-1	3	2	W
11/04	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	8	3	L
04/04	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Koninklijke HFC

LWLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	ADO '20 Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
23/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
16/05	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-4	2	1	L
25/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
18/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
11/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	8	3	L
28/03	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
21/03	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	0	0	W
14/03	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hoek vs Koninklijke HFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HSV Hoek win (66%). Probabilities: HSV Hoek 66%, draw 20%, Koninklijke HFC 14%.

How many goals are expected in HSV Hoek vs Koninklijke HFC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (HSV Hoek 2.26 · Koninklijke HFC 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HSV Hoek vs Koninklijke HFC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.