Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 29/08, 15:00
Prediction: Barendrecht vs Katwijk
Team pages: Barendrecht · Katwijk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.89Total
Barendrecht1.75
Katwijk2.14
1X2
Barendrecht
Draw
Katwijk
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Barendrecht
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Katwijk
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barendrecht
0–1–5
Katwijk
(6 last)
- Barendrecht2-3Katwijk
- Katwijk4-3Barendrecht
- Barendrecht1-2Katwijk
- Katwijk4-1Barendrecht
- Barendrecht1-1Katwijk
- Katwijk4-0Barendrecht
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barendrecht 1440 · Katwijk 1514
| Barendrecht | Draw | Katwijk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 22% | 46% |
| Market | 31% | 23% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katwijk (rating 1440 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Katwijk: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barendrecht | Katwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.7 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.1 | 3.5 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barendrecht 0–1–5 Katwijk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Barendrecht | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Katwijk |
| 25/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Katwijk | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Barendrecht |
| 01/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Barendrecht | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Katwijk |
| 07/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Katwijk | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Barendrecht |
| 20/04/19 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Barendrecht | 1-1 | Katwijk |
| 01/12/18 Netherlands Tweede Divisie | Katwijk | 4-0 | Barendrecht |
Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam Reserves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Almere City Reserves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | HHC Hardenberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | HSV Hoek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Kloetinge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | IJsselmeervogels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Kozakken Boys | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Katwijk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Amsterdamsche FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Barendrecht | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Koninklijke HFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | GVVV Veenendaal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | ROHDA Raalte | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 | RKAV Volendam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barendrecht | Katwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Koninklijke HFC | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| HSV Hoek | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Sparta Rotterdam Reserves | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Spakenburg | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| De Treffers | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Katwijk (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barendrecht
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
1-0 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
Katwijk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 4-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barendrecht vs Katwijk?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Katwijk win (46%). Probabilities: Barendrecht 31%, draw 23%, Katwijk 46%.
How many goals are expected in Barendrecht vs Katwijk?
The model expects 3.89 goals (Barendrecht 1.75 · Katwijk 2.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barendrecht vs Katwijk?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.