Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Spakenburg vs Katwijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Spakenburg1.92

Katwijk1.52

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Spakenburg Draw Katwijk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Spakenburg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Katwijk 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Spakenburg 1–4–1 Katwijk (6 last)

Spakenburg2-1Katwijk
Katwijk2-2Spakenburg
Katwijk2-1Spakenburg
Spakenburg2-2Katwijk
Spakenburg0-0Katwijk
Spakenburg2-2Katwijk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spakenburg 1536 · Katwijk 1522

	Spakenburg	Draw	Katwijk
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spakenburg	Katwijk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	3.7 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +6’	1.95	3.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spakenburg 1–4–1 Katwijk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	2-1 HT 1-0	Katwijk
06/12/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	2-2 HT 1-2	Spakenburg
08/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	2-1 HT 2-0	Spakenburg
31/10/24 Netherlands Cup	Spakenburg	2-2 HT 1-0	Katwijk
14/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	0-0 HT 0-0	Katwijk
17/02/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	2-2 HT 0-2	Katwijk

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amsterdamsche FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barendrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Treffers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	GVVV Veenendaal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	HHC Hardenberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	HSV Hoek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	IJsselmeervogels	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almere City Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kloetinge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Koninklijke HFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kozakken Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quick Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rijnsburgse Boys	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RKAV Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ROHDA Raalte	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spakenburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Katwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spakenburg	Katwijk
Koninklijke HFC	2-3 L	4-0 W
De Treffers	0-0 D	1-4 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	3-2 W	3-2 W
Barendrecht	3-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Spakenburg (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Spakenburg

WWLLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
25/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
18/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	7	1	W
11/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
28/03	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
21/03	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-1	3-4	5	4	L
14/03	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/03	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	2	W

Katwijk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	FC Lisse Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
11/07	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	3	0	D
23/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
16/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
09/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	4-0	14	1	W
25/04	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
18/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-4	8	6	L
11/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	14	3	W
04/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
28/03	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	3-2	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spakenburg vs Katwijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spakenburg win (46%). Probabilities: Spakenburg 46%, draw 24%, Katwijk 30%.

How many goals are expected in Spakenburg vs Katwijk?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Spakenburg 1.92 · Katwijk 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Spakenburg vs Katwijk?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.