Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs Jalapa
Expected goals: 2.97 (Matagalpa FC 1.68 · Jalapa 1.29). The model gives 45% home, 27% draw, 28% away. Over 2.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Matagalpa FC is 2-2-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Jalapa 6-3-1 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Matagalpa FC and 2 for Jalapa, with 2 draws.
| Matagalpa FC | Draw | Jalapa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jalapa (rating 1479 vs 1545).
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Matagalpa FC | Jalapa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.9 | 2.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 2–2–2 Jalapa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Jalapa | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Matagalpa FC |
| 11/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Matagalpa FC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Jalapa |
| 26/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura | Matagalpa FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Jalapa |
| 16/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura | Jalapa | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Matagalpa FC |
| 02/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura | Jalapa | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Matagalpa FC |
| 22/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura | Matagalpa FC | 3-3 HT 3-0 | Jalapa |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Matagalpa FC | Jalapa |
|---|---|---|
| Real Esteli | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| CD Walter Ferretti | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| UNAN Managua | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Real Madriz FC | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matagalpa FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 16/04 | Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 08/03 | UNAN Managua Nicaragua Clausura |
0-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 05/03 | Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
Jalapa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05 | Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 30/04 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 20/04 | Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/04 | Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | UNAN Managua Nicaragua Clausura |
3-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/03 | Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 08/03 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs Jalapa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Matagalpa FC win (45%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 45%, draw 27%, Jalapa 28%.
How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs Jalapa?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Matagalpa FC 1.68 · Jalapa 1.29), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs Jalapa?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.