Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 05/09, 12:00
Prediction: FC Metalist Kharkiv vs UCSA
Team pages: FC Metalist Kharkiv · UCSA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
FC Metalist Kharkiv1.49
UCSA1.13
1X2
FC Metalist Kharkiv
Draw
UCSA
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Metalist Kharkiv
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
UCSA
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Metalist Kharkiv
1–1–2
UCSA
(4 last)
- FC Metalist Kharkiv2-0UCSA
- UCSA2-1FC Metalist Kharkiv
- UCSA3-3FC Metalist Kharkiv
- FC Metalist Kharkiv0-2UCSA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1530 · UCSA 1446
| FC Metalist Kharkiv | Draw | UCSA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Metalist Kharkiv (rating 1530 vs 1446).
- H2H favours UCSA: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Metalist Kharkiv | UCSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.6 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1–1–2 UCSA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 2-0 HT 1-0 | UCSA |
| 01/11/25 Ukraine Persha Liga | UCSA | 2-1 HT 2-1 | FC Metalist Kharkiv |
| 18/05/25 Ukraine Persha Liga | UCSA | 3-3 HT 2-0 | FC Metalist Kharkiv |
| 18/04/25 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 0-2 HT 0-1 | UCSA |
Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Viktoriya Sumy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | SC Poltava | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | PFC Oleksandria | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Ingulets Petrovo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 6 | Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | FSC Feniks-Mariupol | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | UCSA | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Nyva Ternopil | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Chernigiv | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Polissya Zhytomyr II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 16 | FC Probiy Horodenka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Metalist Kharkiv | UCSA |
|---|---|---|
| Nyva Ternopil | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| PFC Oleksandria | 0-2 L | 4-4 D |
| Polissya Zhytomyr II | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Chernigiv | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Metalist Kharkiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga |
3-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/06 | Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Vorskla Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
UCSA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 07/08 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/06 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 08/05 | FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs UCSA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Metalist Kharkiv win (44%). Probabilities: FC Metalist Kharkiv 44%, draw 28%, UCSA 28%.
How many goals are expected in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs UCSA?
The model expects 2.63 goals (FC Metalist Kharkiv 1.49 · UCSA 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Metalist Kharkiv vs UCSA?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.