Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 12/09, 11:00

Prediction: Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Metalist Kharkiv

Team pages: Ingulets Petrovo · FC Metalist Kharkiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Ingulets Petrovo1.22

FC Metalist Kharkiv1.26

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Ingulets Petrovo Draw FC Metalist Kharkiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ingulets Petrovo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWLLWD

FC Metalist Kharkiv 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Ingulets Petrovo 3–1–0 FC Metalist Kharkiv (4 last)

Ingulets Petrovo3-0FC Metalist Kharkiv
FC Metalist Kharkiv1-2Ingulets Petrovo
Ingulets Petrovo2-1FC Metalist Kharkiv
FC Metalist Kharkiv1-1Ingulets Petrovo

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Metalist Kharkiv (rating 1486 vs 1547).
H2H favours Ingulets Petrovo: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ingulets Petrovo	FC Metalist Kharkiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.87

Under 2.251.87

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:42

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.34 → 2.43▲	Pinn 2.43
X	3.17 → 3.02▼	Pinn 3.02
2	2.62 → 2.72▲	Pinn 2.72

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +65’	2.34	3.17	2.62
09:02 +41’	2.43▲	3.02▼	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ingulets Petrovo 3–1–0 FC Metalist Kharkiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ingulets Petrovo	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Metalist Kharkiv
10/08/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Metalist Kharkiv	1-2 HT 1-1	Ingulets Petrovo
11/03/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Ingulets Petrovo	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Metalist Kharkiv
29/08/22 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	FC Metalist Kharkiv	1-1 HT 1-0	Ingulets Petrovo

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	6	5	1	0	10	2	16
2	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	7	4	2	1	17	7	14
3	PFC Oleksandria	6	3	3	0	11	5	12
4	SC Poltava	7	3	3	1	9	3	12
5	Ingulets Petrovo	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	6	3	1	2	11	9	10
7	FC Metalist Kharkiv	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
8	UCSA	7	2	3	2	12	13	9
9	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
10	FC Chernigiv	7	1	4	2	8	9	7
11	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	7	2	0	5	4	13	6
13	Nyva Ternopil	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
14	Lokomotiv Kyiv	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
15	Polissya Zhytomyr II	6	0	3	3	7	10	3
16	FC Probiy Horodenka	6	0	2	4	4	18	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ingulets Petrovo	FC Metalist Kharkiv
UCSA	2-1 W	3-1 W
Nyva Ternopil	1-2 L	1-1 D
PFC Oleksandria	0-3 L	0-2 L
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Probiy Horodenka	2-2 D	3-1 W
FC Chernigiv	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Metalist Kharkiv (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ingulets Petrovo

DDWLDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
16/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/08	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/07	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
01/06	FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
23/05	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D

FC Metalist Kharkiv

DWWLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
30/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
01/08	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	3-1	3-1	11	5	W
26/07	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
01/06	Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
26/05	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
23/05	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
17/05	Vorskla Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	12	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Metalist Kharkiv win (36%). Probabilities: Ingulets Petrovo 34%, draw 30%, FC Metalist Kharkiv 36%.

How many goals are expected in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Ingulets Petrovo 1.22 · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ingulets Petrovo vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.