Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 13/09, 12:00

Prediction: FC Probiy Horodenka vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Team pages: FC Probiy Horodenka · FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

FC Probiy Horodenka0.93

FSC Feniks-Mariupol1.41

1X2

24% 28% 48%

FC Probiy Horodenka Draw FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Probiy Horodenka 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FSC Feniks-Mariupol 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

FC Probiy Horodenka 0–2–0 FSC Feniks-Mariupol (2 last)

FSC Feniks-Mariupol0-0FC Probiy Horodenka
FC Probiy Horodenka0-0FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Probiy Horodenka 1458 · FSC Feniks-Mariupol 1510

	FC Probiy Horodenka	Draw	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Our model	23%	30%	47%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FSC Feniks-Mariupol (rating 1458 vs 1510).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Probiy Horodenka	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.1	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.30

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.40 ★
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +9’	3.60	3.30	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:16 +13’	3.65	3.47	1.77
08:04 +1’	3.16▼	3.23▼	2.00▲
10:05 +1’	3.21▲	3.28▲	2.02▲
11:33 +3’	3.47▲	3.40▲	1.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Probiy Horodenka 0–2–0 FSC Feniks-Mariupol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Probiy Horodenka
25/10/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Probiy Horodenka	0-0 HT 0-0	FSC Feniks-Mariupol

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	6	5	1	0	10	2	16
2	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	7	4	2	1	17	7	14
3	PFC Oleksandria	6	3	3	0	11	5	12
4	SC Poltava	7	3	3	1	9	3	12
5	Ingulets Petrovo	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	6	3	1	2	11	9	10
7	FC Metalist Kharkiv	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
8	UCSA	7	2	3	2	12	13	9
9	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
10	FC Chernigiv	7	1	4	2	8	9	7
11	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	7	2	0	5	4	13	6
13	Nyva Ternopil	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
14	Lokomotiv Kyiv	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
15	Polissya Zhytomyr II	6	0	3	3	7	10	3
16	FC Probiy Horodenka	6	0	2	4	4	18	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Probiy Horodenka	FSC Feniks-Mariupol
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-6 L	0-2 L
FC Viktoriya Sumy	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FSC Feniks-Mariupol (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Probiy Horodenka

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-6	1	0	L
30/08	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
14/08	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
09/08	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
26/07	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/06	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-3	7	4	L
23/05	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/05	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

FSC Feniks-Mariupol

WDDWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
16/08	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
09/08	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
31/07	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
24/07	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
01/06	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/05	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	3-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Probiy Horodenka vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FSC Feniks-Mariupol win (48%). Probabilities: FC Probiy Horodenka 24%, draw 28%, FSC Feniks-Mariupol 48%.

How many goals are expected in FC Probiy Horodenka vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

The model expects 2.34 goals (FC Probiy Horodenka 0.93 · FSC Feniks-Mariupol 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Probiy Horodenka vs FSC Feniks-Mariupol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.