Football · Austria Landesliga · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: SV Spittal/Drau vs TSV Grafenstein

Team pages: SV Spittal/Drau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

SV Spittal/Drau1.52

TSV Grafenstein1.88

1X2

31% 23% 46%

SV Spittal/Drau Draw TSV Grafenstein

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SV Spittal/Drau 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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TSV Grafenstein 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SV Spittal/Drau 1–1 TSV Grafenstein (2 last)

SV Spittal/Drau2-1TSV Grafenstein
TSV Grafenstein2-1SV Spittal/Drau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Spittal/Drau 1457 · TSV Grafenstein 1551

	SV Spittal/Drau	Draw	TSV Grafenstein
Our model	30%	24%	45%
Market	31%	23%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSV Grafenstein (rating 1457 vs 1551).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Spittal/Drau	TSV Grafenstein
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	2.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.6	2.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.00

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +1’	2.88	4.00	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Spittal/Drau 1–0–1 TSV Grafenstein

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Austria Landesliga	SV Spittal/Drau	2-1 HT 1-1	TSV Grafenstein
22/08/25 Austria Landesliga	TSV Grafenstein	2-1 HT 1-1	SV Spittal/Drau

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FV Austria XIII	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Floridsdorfer AC II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC 1980 Wien	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hellas Kagran	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	First Vienna II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	LAC Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Post SV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Red Star Penzing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Simmeringer SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slovan HAC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Helfort 15	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SV Schwechat	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Team Wiener Linien	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportunion Mauer	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WAF Brigittenau	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Spittal/Drau	TSV Grafenstein
Sirnitz	1-2 L	2-0 W
ATUS Ferlach	0-1 L	5-0 W
KAC 1909	4-1 W	0-0 D
Lendorf	0-4 L	1-2 L
SV Dellach/Gail	0-4 L	3-2 W
VST Volkermarkt	2-2 D	3-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TSV Grafenstein (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SV Spittal/Drau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Sirnitz Austria Landesliga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	ATUS Ferlach Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/06	KAC 1909 Austria Landesliga	1-1	4-1	7	0	W
29/05	SV Donau Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
22/05	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-3	0-4	2	3	L
17/05	ASKO Kottmannsdorf Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/05	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
08/05	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
03/05	Austria Klagenfurt II Austria Landesliga	3-0	3-1	7	3	W
29/04	VST Volkermarkt Austria Landesliga	0-1	2-2	0	5	D

TSV Grafenstein

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	Sirnitz Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
18/07	DSG Ferlach Austria Amateur Cup	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
10/07	SK Treibach Europe Friendlies	1-0	6-1	4	0	W
03/06	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	3-2	3-2	8	4	W
29/05	VST Volkermarkt Austria Landesliga	3-1	3-5	–	–	L
23/05	ATUS Ferlach Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/05	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
13/05	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Landesliga	1-2	3-4	6	2	L
08/05	KAC 1909 Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Spittal/Drau vs TSV Grafenstein?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TSV Grafenstein win (46%). Probabilities: SV Spittal/Drau 31%, draw 23%, TSV Grafenstein 46%.

How many goals are expected in SV Spittal/Drau vs TSV Grafenstein?

The model expects 3.39 goals (SV Spittal/Drau 1.52 · TSV Grafenstein 1.88), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Spittal/Drau vs TSV Grafenstein?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.