Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 08/08, 12:00
Prediction: Chaves vs Academica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Chaves1.59
Academica1
1X2
Chaves
Draw
Academica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chaves
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Academica
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chaves
4–2
Academica
(6 last)
- Chaves3-2Academica
- Academica1-2Chaves
- Academica2-1Chaves
- Chaves2-1Academica
- Chaves1-2Academica
- Academica1-2Chaves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chaves 1467 · Academica 1538
| Chaves | Draw | Academica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Academica (rating 1467 vs 1538).
- H2H favours Chaves: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chaves | Academica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chaves 4–0–2 Academica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/22 Portugal Segunda Liga | Chaves | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Academica |
| 12/12/21 Portugal Segunda Liga | Academica | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Chaves |
| 24/04/21 Portugal Segunda Liga | Academica | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Chaves |
| 27/12/20 Portugal Segunda Liga | Chaves | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Academica |
| 09/02/20 Portugal Segunda Liga | Chaves | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Academica |
| 24/08/19 Portugal Segunda Liga | Academica | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Chaves |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amarante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AVS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Feirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tondela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Felgueiras 1932 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penafiel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vizela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leixoes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lusitania Lourosa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portimonense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Farense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SCU Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Leiria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chaves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Academico Viseu Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Guimaraes Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
3-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Academica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Caldas SC Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/07 | UD Santarem Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/04 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chaves vs Academica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chaves win (50%). Probabilities: Chaves 50%, draw 28%, Academica 22%.
How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Academica?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Chaves 1.59 · Academica 1), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Academica?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.