Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 08/08, 19:00
Prediction: Tondela vs Amarante
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Tondela1.69
Amarante0.72
1X2
Tondela
Draw
Amarante
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Tondela
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Amarante
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tondela 1454 · Amarante 1555
| Tondela | Draw | Amarante | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amarante (rating 1454 vs 1555).
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tondela | Amarante | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amarante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AVS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Feirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tondela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Felgueiras 1932 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penafiel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vizela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leixoes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lusitania Lourosa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portimonense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Farense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SCU Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Leiria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tondela
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Rio Ave Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Famalicao Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 12 | W |
| 29/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 13/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
Amarante
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Moreirense Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/04 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 29/03 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 22/03 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tondela vs Amarante?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tondela win (60%). Probabilities: Tondela 60%, draw 25%, Amarante 15%.
How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Amarante?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Tondela 1.69 · Amarante 0.72), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Amarante?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.