Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Penafiel vs Sporting B

Team pages: Penafiel · Sporting B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Penafiel1.22

Sporting B1.17

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Penafiel Draw Sporting B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Penafiel 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWLLD

Sporting B 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Penafiel 5–1–0 Sporting B (6 last)

Sporting B1-2Penafiel
Penafiel1-1Sporting B
Sporting B3-4Penafiel
Penafiel4-1Sporting B
Penafiel2-1Sporting B
Sporting B1-2Penafiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penafiel 1486 · Sporting B 1468

	Penafiel	Draw	Sporting B
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Penafiel: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penafiel	Sporting B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.50
X	3.35 → 3.35	Pinn 3.35
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:28	2.50	3.35	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penafiel 5–1–0 Sporting B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Sporting B	1-2 HT 1-0	Penafiel
08/11/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	1-1 HT 1-0	Sporting B
14/03/18 Portugal Segunda Liga	Sporting B	3-4 HT 1-1	Penafiel
21/10/17 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	4-1 HT 0-1	Sporting B
19/04/17 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	2-1 HT 2-1	Sporting B
27/11/16 Portugal Segunda Liga	Sporting B	1-2 HT 1-1	Penafiel

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academica	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
2	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
3	Benfica B	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
4	SC Farense	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Lusitania Lourosa	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
6	Sporting B	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
7	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Vizela	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	Tondela	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
10	Felgueiras 1932	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SCU Torreense	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Penafiel	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Feirense	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Amarante	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
15	UD Leiria	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	FC Porto B	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
17	Chaves	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penafiel	Sporting B
FC Porto B	3-0 W	0-1 L
Academico Viseu	4-3 W	0-0 D
Vizela	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Penafiel (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penafiel

LWWLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-2	2	8	D
08/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
17/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
09/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/05	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-3	2-3	5	4	L
26/04	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
18/04	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-2	2-4	2	6	L
11/04	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	3-1	4-3	1	8	W
04/04	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
21/03	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Sporting B

WLLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
09/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
16/05	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/05	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
01/05	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	11	L
26/04	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
20/04	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
11/04	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
04/04	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
22/03	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penafiel vs Sporting B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penafiel win (36%). Probabilities: Penafiel 36%, draw 30%, Sporting B 34%.

How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Sporting B?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Penafiel 1.22 · Sporting B 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penafiel vs Sporting B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.