Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: SC Farense vs Felgueiras 1932

Team pages: SC Farense · Felgueiras 1932

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

SC Farense1.15

Felgueiras 19320.77

1X2

44% 32% 24%

SC Farense Draw Felgueiras 1932

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

SC Farense 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Felgueiras 1932 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDWDD

Head-to-head

SC Farense 1–2–1 Felgueiras 1932 (4 last)

SC Farense0-0Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 19321-1SC Farense
SC Farense0-1Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 19322-3SC Farense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Farense 1565 · Felgueiras 1932 1527

	SC Farense	Draw	Felgueiras 1932
Our model	43%	33%	23%
Market	45%	30%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Farense	Felgueiras 1932
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.11 ★
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.09
2	3.10 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.79

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +4’	2.25	2.90	3.10
05:38 +5’	2.00▼	3.00▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +1’	2.11	3.09	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Farense 1–2–1 Felgueiras 1932

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	0-0 HT 0-0	Felgueiras 1932
16/11/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Felgueiras 1932	1-1 HT 0-0	SC Farense
13/05/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	SC Farense	0-1	Felgueiras 1932
06/05/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Felgueiras 1932	2-3	SC Farense

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academica	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
2	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
3	Benfica B	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
4	SC Farense	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Lusitania Lourosa	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
6	Sporting B	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
7	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Vizela	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	Tondela	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
10	Felgueiras 1932	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	SCU Torreense	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Penafiel	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Feirense	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Amarante	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
15	UD Leiria	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	FC Porto B	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
17	Chaves	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Farense	Felgueiras 1932
FC Porto B	3-1 W	0-1 L
SCU Torreense	2-1 W	0-3 L
Portimonense	0-1 L	1-1 D
Pacos Ferreira	1-1 D	0-0 D
UD Leiria	3-0 W	2-1 W
Academico Viseu	0-0 D	1-0 W
Sporting B	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SC Farense (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SC Farense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
09/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	CF Os Belenenses Portugal Segunda Liga Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
23/05	CF Os Belenenses Portugal Segunda Liga Play-Offs	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
17/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
09/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
25/04	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/04	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
11/04	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-1	3	3	W

Felgueiras 1932

LWDWWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
09/08	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/05	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	5-1	5	1	W
09/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/05	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	9	10	L
25/04	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	0	5	W
20/04	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
10/04	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
04/04	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
22/03	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Farense vs Felgueiras 1932?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Farense win (44%). Probabilities: SC Farense 44%, draw 32%, Felgueiras 1932 24%.

How many goals are expected in SC Farense vs Felgueiras 1932?

The model expects 1.91 goals (SC Farense 1.15 · Felgueiras 1932 0.77), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Farense vs Felgueiras 1932?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.