Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: OH Leuven II vs Cercle Brugge Reserves

Team pages: OH Leuven II · Cercle Brugge Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

OH Leuven II2.36

Cercle Brugge Reserves1.5

1X2

56% 21% 23%

OH Leuven II Draw Cercle Brugge Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

OH Leuven II 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLDWD

Cercle Brugge Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

OH Leuven II 2–2–2 Cercle Brugge Reserves (6 last)

Cercle Brugge Reserves0-4OH Leuven II
OH Leuven II0-0Cercle Brugge Reserves
OH Leuven II3-2Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves2-0OH Leuven II
Cercle Brugge Reserves1-0OH Leuven II
OH Leuven II2-2Cercle Brugge Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OH Leuven II 1527 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1430

	OH Leuven II	Draw	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Our model	56%	21%	23%
Market	56%	21%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours OH Leuven II (rating 1527 vs 1430).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OH Leuven II	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.33

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.53
2	4.20 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.53 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:59 +24’	1.55	4.33	4.20
08:17 +5’	1.60▲	4.33	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +4’	1.55	4.53	4.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OH Leuven II 2–2–2 Cercle Brugge Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	0-4 HT 0-2	OH Leuven II
29/08/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	OH Leuven II	0-0 HT 0-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves
09/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	OH Leuven II	3-2 HT 1-2	Cercle Brugge Reserves
27/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	OH Leuven II
14/02/22 Belgium Reserve League	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	OH Leuven II
04/10/21 Belgium Reserve League	OH Leuven II	2-2 HT 1-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	10	6	2	2	21	9	20
2	RFC Meux	10	6	1	3	16	9	19
3	RWD Molenbeek	10	6	1	3	15	12	19
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
5	RAEC Mons	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
6	Tubize	10	5	2	3	15	11	17
7	Standard Liege II	10	4	1	5	13	8	13
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
9	ROC Charleroi	10	3	3	4	13	22	12
10	RSC Habay	9	2	3	4	8	12	9
11	RCS Onhaye	9	2	1	6	10	20	7
12	FC Flenu	10	0	1	9	10	31	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OH Leuven II	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Dessel Sport	2-2 D	1-3 L
KSK Heist	0-0 D	1-3 L
Royal Knokke	2-3 L	2-1 W
K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	3-1 W	2-1 W
KVV Thes Sport	3-2 W	2-2 D
KVV Zelzate	4-3 W	1-1 D
Tienen	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: OH Leuven II (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OH Leuven II

WLWWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
18/10	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
11/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
04/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	2-3	7	5	L
27/09	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/09	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	1	5	W
13/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	3-1	4-3	8	2	W
06/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
29/08	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	1-3	2	4	L
26/04	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

Cercle Brugge Reserves

LDLWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
17/10	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
11/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
27/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
19/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
26/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OH Leuven II vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OH Leuven II win (56%). Probabilities: OH Leuven II 56%, draw 21%, Cercle Brugge Reserves 23%.

How many goals are expected in OH Leuven II vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model expects 3.86 goals (OH Leuven II 2.36 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in OH Leuven II vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.