Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 08/11, 13:30

Prediction: Magdeburg vs St Pauli

Team pages: Magdeburg · St Pauli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Magdeburg1.58

St Pauli1.42

1X2

40% 26% 33%

Magdeburg Draw St Pauli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Magdeburg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWLWD

St Pauli 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Magdeburg 1–1–4 St Pauli (6 last)

Magdeburg1-0St Pauli
St Pauli0-0Magdeburg
Magdeburg1-2St Pauli
St Pauli3-0Magdeburg
Magdeburg2-3St Pauli
St Pauli4-1Magdeburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Magdeburg 1533 · St Pauli 1477

	Magdeburg	Draw	St Pauli
Our model	40%	26%	33%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Magdeburg (rating 1533 vs 1477).
H2H favours St Pauli: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Magdeburg	St Pauli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.37
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	2.90 → 2.80▼	Pinn 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +1’	2.20	3.50	2.90
18:32 +1’	2.30▲	3.50	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +26’	2.34	3.67	2.89
06:59 +11’	2.35▲	3.64▼	2.90▲
11:06 +7’	2.37▲	3.64	2.87▼
18:32	2.37	3.62▼	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Magdeburg 1–1–4 St Pauli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	1-0 HT 0-0	St Pauli
27/08/23 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	0-0 HT 0-0	Magdeburg
18/02/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	1-2 HT 1-0	St Pauli
14/08/22 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	3-0 HT 2-0	Magdeburg
07/08/21 Germany DFB Pokal	Magdeburg	2-3 HT 1-2	St Pauli
22/12/18 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	4-1 HT 1-1	Magdeburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	10	9	1	0	23	8	28
2	Nurnberg	10	6	3	1	24	13	21
3	Wolfsburg	10	5	4	1	25	14	19
4	Kaiserslautern	10	5	3	2	9	7	18
5	Magdeburg	10	5	2	3	21	13	17
6	Heidenheim	10	4	3	3	17	18	15
7	Arminia Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	16	15	14
8	St Pauli	10	2	6	2	12	12	12
9	Greuther Furth	10	3	3	4	13	16	12
10	VfL Osnabruck	10	3	2	5	14	17	11
11	Bochum	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
12	Hannover 96	10	3	2	5	10	16	11
13	Karlsruher SC	10	3	2	5	13	21	11
14	Cottbus	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	16	18	10
16	Darmstadt	10	2	3	5	9	19	9
17	Holstein Kiel	10	1	5	4	10	12	8
18	Dynamo Dresden	10	2	2	6	12	20	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Magdeburg	St Pauli
Darmstadt	1-1 D	0-0 D
Karlsruher SC	6-1 W	2-0 W
Hannover 96	3-0 W	1-1 D
Greuther Furth	1-1 D	1-1 D
Kaiserslautern	3-0 W	1-2 L
Holstein Kiel	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Magdeburg (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Magdeburg

LWWLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
24/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	6-1	4	3	W
18/10	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
10/10	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
18/09	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
06/09	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
30/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-0	3	9	W
15/08	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	10	2	W
08/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-4	1-6	5	6	L

St Pauli

DDLDWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
23/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
17/10	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
20/09	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
12/09	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
04/09	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
30/08	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
14/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	5	6	D
09/08	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-1	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Magdeburg win (40%). Probabilities: Magdeburg 40%, draw 26%, St Pauli 33%.

How many goals are expected in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?

The model expects 3 goals (Magdeburg 1.58 · St Pauli 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.