Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 01/11, 13:30

Prediction: Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel

Team pages: Greuther Furth · Holstein Kiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Greuther Furth1.44

Holstein Kiel1.46

1X2

36% 26% 37%

Greuther Furth Draw Holstein Kiel

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Greuther Furth 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDDLWL

Holstein Kiel 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLDLDW

Head-to-head

Greuther Furth 2–1–3 Holstein Kiel (6 last)

Holstein Kiel1-2Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth0-2Holstein Kiel
Greuther Furth2-1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2-1Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel2-1Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth2-2Holstein Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greuther Furth 1471 · Holstein Kiel 1489

	Greuther Furth	Draw	Holstein Kiel
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Holstein Kiel: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greuther Furth	Holstein Kiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	3.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.53
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.72
2	2.25 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.60 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +3’	2.70	3.60	2.25
21:23 +5’	2.38▼	3.60	2.55▲
18:58 +3’	2.45▲	3.60	2.50▼
23:23 +1’	2.50▲	3.60	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +160’	2.32	3.85	2.80
11:56 +20’	2.51▲	3.85	2.56▼
13:16 +10’	2.53▲	3.78▼	2.58▲
20:02 +30’	2.45▼	3.78	2.67▲
13:20 +8’	2.46▲	3.72▼	2.68▲
18:46 +16’	2.54▲	3.72	2.59▼
14:27 +3’	2.58▲	3.72	2.55▼
23:02 +22’	2.53▼	3.72	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Greuther Furth 2–1–3 Holstein Kiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	1-2 HT 0-0	Greuther Furth
24/08/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Greuther Furth	0-2 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel
28/01/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Greuther Furth	2-1 HT 0-0	Holstein Kiel
05/08/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-1 HT 0-0	Greuther Furth
28/01/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-1 HT 0-1	Greuther Furth
16/07/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Greuther Furth	2-2 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	9	8	1	0	20	8	25
2	Nurnberg	9	5	3	1	21	12	18
3	Kaiserslautern	9	5	3	1	9	4	18
4	Wolfsburg	9	4	4	1	23	14	16
5	Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	20	12	16
6	Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	16	16	15
7	St Pauli	9	2	6	1	11	9	12
8	VfL Osnabruck	9	3	2	4	14	15	11
9	Arminia Bielefeld	9	3	2	4	13	14	11
10	Eintracht Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	15	15	10
11	Cottbus	9	2	4	3	17	18	10
12	Greuther Furth	9	2	3	4	12	16	9
13	Holstein Kiel	9	1	5	3	10	11	8
14	Bochum	9	2	2	5	6	10	8
15	Dynamo Dresden	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
16	Hannover 96	9	2	2	5	8	15	8
17	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	11	20	8
18	Darmstadt	9	2	2	5	8	18	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greuther Furth	Holstein Kiel
VfL Osnabruck	0-3 L	1-1 D
Eintracht Braunschweig	2-0 W	0-1 L
Hertha Berlin	1-2 L	0-0 D
Magdeburg	1-1 D	0-2 L
Heidenheim	0-1 L	0-1 L
Nurnberg	2-4 L	2-2 D
St Pauli	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Holstein Kiel (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greuther Furth

WDLWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
17/10	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
11/10	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-2	12	2	L
18/09	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
06/09	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
29/08	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	4-3	6	4	W
15/08	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	2-2	2-4	5	5	L
09/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
17/05	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	3-0	2	7	W

Holstein Kiel

LDDLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
16/10	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
09/10	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/09	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
13/09	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
05/09	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	10	7	D
30/08	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Holstein Kiel win (37%). Probabilities: Greuther Furth 36%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 37%.

How many goals are expected in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Greuther Furth 1.44 · Holstein Kiel 1.46), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.