Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 26/07, 22:15
Prediction: Estudiantes LP vs CA Independiente
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Estudiantes LP1.28
CA Independiente0.91
1X2
Estudiantes LP
Draw
CA Independiente
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes LP
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
CA Independiente
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes LP
2–2–2
CA Independiente
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes LP 1565 · CA Independiente 1528
| Estudiantes LP | Draw | CA Independiente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | 43% | 32% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes LP | CA Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.5 | 2.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes LP 2–2–2 CA Independiente
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 12/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 0-2 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente |
| 09/09/23 Argentina Cup | CA Independiente | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes LP |
| 09/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 21/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 13/02/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 2-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Central Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lanus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Platense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Defensa y Justicia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newell's | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes LP | CA Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Racing Club | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Estudiantes LP (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Independiente Medellin Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Flamengo Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 07/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 30/04 | Flamengo Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 15/04 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/03 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes LP vs CA Independiente?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes LP win (43%). Probabilities: Estudiantes LP 43%, draw 32%, CA Independiente 25%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes LP vs CA Independiente?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Estudiantes LP 1.28 · CA Independiente 0.91), with a 56% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes LP vs CA Independiente?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.