Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 26/07, 20:00
Prediction: Atlético Tucumán vs Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Atlético Tucumán1.17
Independiente Rivadavia1.14
1X2
Atlético Tucumán
Draw
Independiente Rivadavia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atlético Tucumán
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Independiente Rivadavia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atlético Tucumán
4–1–1
Independiente Rivadavia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlético Tucumán 1519 · Independiente Rivadavia 1581
| Atlético Tucumán | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 31% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1519 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Atlético Tucumán: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlético Tucumán | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlético Tucumán 4–1–1 Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Atlético Tucumán |
| 05/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Atlético Tucumán | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 17/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Atlético Tucumán | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 06/09/15 Argentina Nacional B | Independiente Rivadavia | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Atlético Tucumán |
| 20/04/15 Argentina Nacional B | Atlético Tucumán | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 25/10/14 Argentina Nacional B | Atlético Tucumán | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlético Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aldosivi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Banfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barracas Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Belgrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Huracan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | River Plate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sarmiento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Tigre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnasia LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlético Tucumán | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| CA Tigre | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Aldosivi | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Rivadavia (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlético Tucumán
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/03 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 16/03 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 12/03 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | CA Tigre Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 07/05 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 01/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 20/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/04 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlético Tucumán vs Independiente Rivadavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlético Tucumán win (35%). Probabilities: Atlético Tucumán 35%, draw 31%, Independiente Rivadavia 34%.
How many goals are expected in Atlético Tucumán vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Atlético Tucumán 1.17 · Independiente Rivadavia 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlético Tucumán vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.