Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 26/07, 02:30
Prediction: Lanus vs San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.95Total
Lanus1.25
San Lorenzo0.69
1X2
Lanus
Draw
San Lorenzo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Lanus
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lanus
3–2–1
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lanus 1509 · San Lorenzo 1464
| Lanus | Draw | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 49% | 32% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanus (rating 1509 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Lanus: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lanus | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 5.2 | 2.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.5 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanus 3–2–1 San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Lanus |
| 05/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 2-1 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 28/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 21/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lanus |
| 27/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 20/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Lanus | 0-1 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Central Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lanus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Platense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Defensa y Justicia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newell's | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lanus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 27/05 | Mirassol Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | LDU Quito Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 06/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/04 | LDU Quito Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/04 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 21/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lanus vs San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanus win (48%). Probabilities: Lanus 48%, draw 32%, San Lorenzo 19%.
How many goals are expected in Lanus vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 1.95 goals (Lanus 1.25 · San Lorenzo 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lanus vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.