Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 25/07, 02:15

Prediction: Platense vs Union Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Platense1.05

Union Santa Fe1.02

1X2

34% 33% 33%

Platense Draw Union Santa Fe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Platense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLDDLW

Union Santa Fe 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDWLL

Head-to-head

Platense 3–3–0 Union Santa Fe (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Platense 1477 · Union Santa Fe 1476

	Platense	Draw	Union Santa Fe
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Platense: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Platense	Union Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.88

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.86 ★
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.98

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	2.75	2.88	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	2.86	2.74	2.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Platense 3–3–0 Union Santa Fe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Platense
02/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Platense	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Santa Fe
20/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Platense
25/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Platense	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Santa Fe
15/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Platense
14/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Platense	1-0 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Independiente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lanus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Platense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Talleres de Córdoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Defensa y Justicia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Riestra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estudiantes LP	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gimnasia Mendoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Instituto AC Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newell's	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Santa Fe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Velez Sarsfield	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Platense

DWLLWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/05	Corinthians Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
20/05	Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
13/05	San Martin SJ Argentina Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/05	Penarol Copa Libertadores	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
03/05	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
30/04	Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
25/04	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
20/04	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	3-4	7	6	L
17/04	Penarol Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-1	0	10	W
12/04	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Union Santa Fe

LWWLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	CA Independiente Argentina Cup	0-2	0-2	1	9	L
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
27/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	4	10	D
18/04	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-3	15	6	L
11/04	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	6	10	L
03/04	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
31/03	Agropecuario Argentina Cup	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/03	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Platense vs Union Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Platense win (34%). Probabilities: Platense 34%, draw 33%, Union Santa Fe 33%.

How many goals are expected in Platense vs Union Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Platense 1.05 · Union Santa Fe 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Platense vs Union Santa Fe?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.