Football · Finland Kolmonen · 10/09, 18:00

Prediction: VPV Pallo-Veikot vs FC Ylivieska

Team pages: VPV Pallo-Veikot · FC Ylivieska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

VPV Pallo-Veikot1.81

FC Ylivieska1.79

1X2

39% 22% 38%

VPV Pallo-Veikot Draw FC Ylivieska

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

VPV Pallo-Veikot 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWWLL

FC Ylivieska 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWWLD

Head-to-head

VPV Pallo-Veikot 2–2 FC Ylivieska (4 last)

FC Ylivieska4-0VPV Pallo-Veikot
FC Ylivieska5-2VPV Pallo-Veikot
VPV Pallo-Veikot2-1FC Ylivieska
VPV Pallo-Veikot4-2FC Ylivieska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPV Pallo-Veikot 1495 · FC Ylivieska 1531

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	Draw	FC Ylivieska
Our model	39%	24%	38%
Market	40%	21%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	FC Ylivieska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	71/14/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.4 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +3’	2.25	4.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VPV Pallo-Veikot 2–0–2 FC Ylivieska

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	4-0 HT 1-0	VPV Pallo-Veikot
24/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	5-2 HT 2-2	VPV Pallo-Veikot
28/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	VPV Pallo-Veikot	2-1	FC Ylivieska
27/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	VPV Pallo-Veikot	4-2 HT 3-1	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	17	13	2	2	53	13	41
2	FC Kiisto	18	9	4	5	42	25	31
3	SIF	17	8	3	6	36	32	27
4	FC Ylivieska	17	8	3	6	41	39	27
5	Virkia	17	7	3	7	32	33	24
6	SJK-j	17	6	5	6	27	27	23
7	VPV Pallo-Veikot	16	7	2	7	21	23	23
8	Sporting Kristina	17	6	4	7	26	28	22
9	LBK	18	6	1	11	26	49	19
10	Nykarleby IK	17	4	4	9	24	40	16
11	KPV Akatemia	17	4	1	12	33	52	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPV Pallo-Veikot	FC Ylivieska
Nykarleby IK	0-2 L	2-1 W
VIFK	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Kiisto	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sporting Kristina	2-1 W	2-0 W
KPV Akatemia	1-0 W	3-5 L
LBK	2-3 L	4-1 W
Virkia	1-0 W	3-2 W
SJK-j	2-0 W	2-2 D
SIF	1-1 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPV Pallo-Veikot

DWWLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
11/08	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
09/08	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
04/08	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
30/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
23/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
16/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

FC Ylivieska

LWLWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/08	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-2	3-4	2	6	L
19/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
13/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
30/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	1	11	D
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L
02/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	0	5	W
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs FC Ylivieska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPV Pallo-Veikot win (39%). Probabilities: VPV Pallo-Veikot 39%, draw 22%, FC Ylivieska 38%.

How many goals are expected in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs FC Ylivieska?

The model expects 3.61 goals (VPV Pallo-Veikot 1.81 · FC Ylivieska 1.79), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs FC Ylivieska?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.