Football · Denmark Division 2 · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: Thisted FC vs FC Roskilde

Team pages: Thisted FC · FC Roskilde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Thisted FC1.26

FC Roskilde1.78

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Thisted FC Draw FC Roskilde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Thisted FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLWL

FC Roskilde 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDDDWDWD

Head-to-head

Thisted FC 3–1–2 FC Roskilde (6 last)

Thisted FC1-2FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde0-1Thisted FC
FC Roskilde1-2Thisted FC
Thisted FC0-0FC Roskilde
Thisted FC1-3FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde2-3Thisted FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thisted FC 1435 · FC Roskilde 1573

	Thisted FC	Draw	FC Roskilde
Our model	26%	25%	49%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Roskilde (rating 1435 vs 1573).
H2H favours Thisted FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thisted FC	FC Roskilde
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	3.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:27 +19’	3.40	3.60	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Thisted FC 3–1–2 FC Roskilde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Roskilde
25/04/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	0-1 HT 0-1	Thisted FC
01/11/25 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	1-2 HT 1-1	Thisted FC
21/09/25 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
18/11/23 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Roskilde
14/10/23 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-3 HT 1-3	Thisted FC

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	9	6	3	0	24	10	21
2	VSK Arhus	9	5	3	1	14	5	18
3	FC Roskilde	9	3	6	0	16	10	15
4	Middelfart	9	3	5	1	17	10	14
5	Naestved	9	3	5	1	13	11	14
6	Fremad Amager	9	3	5	1	13	12	14
7	B93 Copenhagen	9	3	3	3	13	13	12
8	Skive	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
9	Hellerup IK	9	2	2	5	8	16	8
10	Brabrand	9	1	3	5	10	18	6
11	FA 2000	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
12	Thisted FC	9	1	1	7	8	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thisted FC	FC Roskilde
B93 Copenhagen	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brabrand	3-1 W	1-1 D
Naestved	1-3 L	2-2 D
Nykobing	0-3 L	2-2 D
Fremad Amager	2-2 D	1-1 D
VSK Arhus	1-3 L	1-0 W
FA 2000	0-1 L	5-1 W
Middelfart	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Roskilde (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thisted FC

LLLLLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-1	0	2	W
13/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
06/09	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-3	0-3	1	1	L
28/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
08/08	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
06/06	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-3	8	3	L

FC Roskilde

WDWDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
13/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
28/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
21/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	0	0	D
07/08	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/07	Naestved Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/06	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-1	3-2	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thisted FC vs FC Roskilde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Roskilde win (49%). Probabilities: Thisted FC 26%, draw 25%, FC Roskilde 49%.

How many goals are expected in Thisted FC vs FC Roskilde?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Thisted FC 1.26 · FC Roskilde 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Thisted FC vs FC Roskilde?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.