Football · Spain Primera Women · 11/09, 20:45

Prediction: Deportivo A Coruna (W) vs Real Madrid (W)

Team pages: Deportivo A Coruna (W) · Real Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Deportivo A Coruna (W)0.83

Real Madrid (W)2.19

1X2

12% 20% 68%

Deportivo A Coruna (W) Draw Real Madrid (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo A Coruna (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Real Madrid (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo A Coruna (W) 0–1–5 Real Madrid (W) (6 last)

Deportivo A Coruna (W)2-4Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)4-0Deportivo A Coruna (W)
Real Madrid (W)2-2Deportivo A Coruna (W)
Deportivo A Coruna (W)1-4Real Madrid (W)
Deportivo A Coruna (W)0-2Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)3-0Deportivo A Coruna (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo A Coruna (W) 1440 · Real Madrid (W) 1617

	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	Draw	Real Madrid (W)
Our model	12%	20%	68%
Market	13%	19%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (W) (rating 1440 vs 1617).
H2H favours Real Madrid (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	Real Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.75

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.40 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.23
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +48’	7.00	4.75	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +31’	8.43	5.27	1.28
14:55 +106’	8.40▼	5.23▼	1.28▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo A Coruna (W) 0–1–5 Real Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Primera Women	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	2-4 HT 2-2	Real Madrid (W)
21/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo A Coruna (W)
15/03/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	2-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo A Coruna (W)
14/12/24 Spain Primera Women	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	1-4 HT 1-0	Real Madrid (W)
27/03/21 Spain Primera Women	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid (W)
04/11/20 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo A Coruna (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	2	2	0	0	9	0	6
2	Madrid CFF (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Athletic Bilbao (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Real Madrid (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Eibar (W)	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Logrono United (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	CD Alaves (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Granada (W)	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
10	FC Badalona (W)	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	Sevilla (W)	2	1	0	1	1	4	3
12	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Tenerife (W)	2	0	1	1	0	5	1
14	Espanyol (W)	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
15	Real Sociedad (W)	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
16	Valencia (W)	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	Real Madrid (W)
Sevilla (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Atletico Madrid (W)	0-2 L	3-2 W
Eibar (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Granada (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo A Coruna (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
29/08	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
31/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
27/05	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
09/05	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
03/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
26/04	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
05/04	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
28/03	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
23/03	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Real Madrid (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
30/08	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	3-2	3-2	4	4	W
31/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
26/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
10/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/04	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
05/04	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/03	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
22/03	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo A Coruna (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid (W) win (68%). Probabilities: Deportivo A Coruna (W) 12%, draw 20%, Real Madrid (W) 68%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo A Coruna (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Deportivo A Coruna (W) 0.83 · Real Madrid (W) 2.19), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo A Coruna (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.