Football · Spain Primera Women · 12/09, 16:30
Prediction: Madrid CFF (W) vs Sevilla (W)
Team pages: Madrid CFF (W) · Sevilla (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Madrid CFF (W)1.61
Sevilla (W)1.19
1X2
Madrid CFF (W)
Draw
Sevilla (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Madrid CFF (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Sevilla (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Madrid CFF (W)
4–1–1
Sevilla (W)
(6 last)
- Madrid CFF (W)2-0Sevilla (W)
- Sevilla (W)1-3Madrid CFF (W)
- Sevilla (W)2-1Madrid CFF (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)2-1Sevilla (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)3-3Sevilla (W)
- Sevilla (W)1-5Madrid CFF (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madrid CFF (W) 1507 · Sevilla (W) 1434
| Madrid CFF (W) | Draw | Sevilla (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madrid CFF (W) (rating 1507 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Madrid CFF (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Madrid CFF (W) | Sevilla (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 0.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madrid CFF (W) 4–1–1 Sevilla (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sevilla (W) |
| 19/10/25 Spain Primera Women | Sevilla (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 12/04/25 Spain Primera Women | Sevilla (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 09/11/24 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sevilla (W) |
| 03/02/24 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 3-3 HT 2-0 | Sevilla (W) |
| 30/09/23 Spain Primera Women | Sevilla (W) | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Madrid CFF (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Madrid CFF (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Madrid (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Eibar (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Logrono United (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | CD Alaves (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Granada (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | FC Badalona (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Sevilla (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Tenerife (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Espanyol (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Madrid CFF (W) | Sevilla (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Granada (W) | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Barcelona (W) | 0-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Logrono United (W) | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Real Madrid (W) | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Tenerife (W) | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Espanyol (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Madrid CFF (W) (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madrid CFF (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 26/05 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 29/03 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Sevilla (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 26/05 | Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 11/05 | Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/03 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madrid CFF (W) vs Sevilla (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Madrid CFF (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Madrid CFF (W) 46%, draw 27%, Sevilla (W) 27%.
How many goals are expected in Madrid CFF (W) vs Sevilla (W)?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Madrid CFF (W) 1.61 · Sevilla (W) 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Madrid CFF (W) vs Sevilla (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.