Football · Spain Primera Women · 12/09, 12:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Espanyol (W)

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao (W) · Espanyol (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Athletic Bilbao (W)1.47

Espanyol (W)0.76

1X2

54% 28% 19%

Athletic Bilbao (W) Draw Espanyol (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWWWW

Espanyol (W) 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDDDLL

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao (W) 4–1–1 Espanyol (W) (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao (W)2-1Espanyol (W)
Espanyol (W)1-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)1-0Espanyol (W)
Espanyol (W)1-2Athletic Bilbao (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)3-0Espanyol (W)
Espanyol (W)2-1Athletic Bilbao (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1538 · Espanyol (W) 1461

	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Draw	Espanyol (W)
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	54%	27%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (W) (rating 1538 vs 1461).
H2H favours Athletic Bilbao (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Espanyol (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.17 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +2’	1.70	3.40	4.33
14:17 +28’	1.67▼	3.30▼	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +21’	1.63	3.50	5.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao (W) 4–1–1 Espanyol (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Espanyol (W)
20/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Espanyol (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
11/05/25 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Espanyol (W)
11/01/25 Spain Primera Women	Espanyol (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao (W)
07/02/21 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	3-0 HT 3-0	Espanyol (W)
18/11/20 Spain Primera Women	Espanyol (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	2	2	0	0	9	0	6
2	Madrid CFF (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Athletic Bilbao (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Real Madrid (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Eibar (W)	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Logrono United (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	CD Alaves (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Granada (W)	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
10	FC Badalona (W)	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	Sevilla (W)	2	1	0	1	1	4	3
12	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Tenerife (W)	2	0	1	1	0	5	1
14	Espanyol (W)	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
15	Real Sociedad (W)	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
16	Valencia (W)	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Espanyol (W)
FC Badalona (W)	3-1 W	0-1 L
Alhama CF (W)	4-1 W	1-3 L
Deportivo A Coruna (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Granada (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Levante UD (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Barcelona (W)	1-7 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
30/08	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-1	5	8	W
31/05	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
26/05	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/05	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/04	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	1-2	12	6	L
05/04	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
29/03	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
21/03	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-4	1-7	1	2	L

Espanyol (W)

DWLLLDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
31/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
09/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
01/05	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/04	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	1-4	3	3	L
04/04	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
28/03	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
21/03	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Espanyol (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao (W) 54%, draw 28%, Espanyol (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Espanyol (W)?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Athletic Bilbao (W) 1.47 · Espanyol (W) 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Espanyol (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.