Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 18/10, 12:15
Prediction: Ajax (W) vs PSV (W)
Team pages: Ajax (W) · PSV (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Ajax (W)1.55
PSV (W)1.33
1X2
Ajax (W)
Draw
PSV (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
PSV (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax (W)
1–2–3
PSV (W)
(6 last)
- PSV (W)3-0Ajax (W)
- PSV (W)1-1Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)2-1PSV (W)
- PSV (W)3-1Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)0-2PSV (W)
- Ajax (W)1-1PSV (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax (W) 1576 · PSV (W) 1563
| Ajax (W) | Draw | PSV (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PSV (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax (W) | PSV (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 0.8 | 2.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.5 | 3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0.2 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax (W) 1–2–3 PSV (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 Netherlands Cup Women | PSV (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 05/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PSV (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 08/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | PSV (W) |
| 22/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PSV (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 07/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | PSV (W) |
| 15/05/24 Netherlands Cup Women | Ajax (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PSV (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
| 2 | Ajax (W) | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV (W) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| 5 | De Graafschap (W) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 6 | Heerenveen (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord (W) | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Utrecht (W) | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax (W) | PSV (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord (W) | 4-1 W | 6-0 W |
| ADO Den Haag (W) | 7-1 W | 3-0 W |
| VV Alkmaar (W) | 5-1 W | 1-3 L |
| De Graafschap (W) | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| PEC Zwolle (W) | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
PSV (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 16/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax (W) vs PSV (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Ajax (W) 42%, draw 26%, PSV (W) 32%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax (W) vs PSV (W)?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Ajax (W) 1.55 · PSV (W) 1.33), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax (W) vs PSV (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.