Football · Denmark Division 2 · 28/08, 19:00

Prediction: Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC

Team pages: Fremad Amager · Thisted FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Fremad Amager1.7

Thisted FC1.15

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Fremad Amager Draw Thisted FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fremad Amager 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDLWD

Thisted FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Fremad Amager 4–2 Thisted FC (6 last)

Fremad Amager2-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC2-1Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager3-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-3Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager0-1Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-2Fremad Amager

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fremad Amager 1514 · Thisted FC 1432

	Fremad Amager	Draw	Thisted FC
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fremad Amager (rating 1514 vs 1432).
H2H favours Fremad Amager: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fremad Amager	Thisted FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.87
X	3.60 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.31
2	4.50 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
21:51 +1’	1.61	3.60	4.50
01:42 +13’	1.85▲	3.30▼	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +1’	1.87	3.31	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fremad Amager 4–0–2 Thisted FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	2-0 HT 0-0	Thisted FC
01/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Fremad Amager
12/04/25 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	3-0 HT 1-0	Thisted FC
22/09/24 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Fremad Amager
25/05/24 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	0-1 HT 0-1	Thisted FC
14/04/24 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Fremad Amager

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VSK Arhus	4	4	0	0	10	1	12
2	Nykobing	4	3	1	0	12	6	10
3	Middelfart	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
4	FC Roskilde	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
5	B93 Copenhagen	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
6	Skive	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
7	Fremad Amager	4	1	2	1	5	6	5
8	Naestved	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	Hellerup IK	4	1	1	2	3	7	4
10	FA 2000	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
11	Brabrand	4	1	0	3	5	10	3
12	Thisted FC	4	0	0	4	2	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fremad Amager	Thisted FC
FC Roskilde	1-1 D	1-2 L
Skive	2-0 W	0-1 L
VSK Arhus	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fremad Amager (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fremad Amager

WWLWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-0	6	9	W
08/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
31/07	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
06/06	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/05	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
23/05	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
16/05	Ishoj Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
13/05	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 2	3-1	4-2	3	1	W
09/05	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	8	W

Thisted FC

LLWWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
08/08	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-3	1-4	4	1	L
06/06	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
29/05	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
23/05	Naestved Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
16/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
08/05	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fremad Amager win (49%). Probabilities: Fremad Amager 49%, draw 27%, Thisted FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Fremad Amager 1.7 · Thisted FC 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.